We've had our first touch on the lower Bollinger Band on the monthly chart since Feb 2009. This is significant and I would expect there to be buying in this area. So the odds are increasing of further downside in the longterm with this touch coupled with other technical indicators. Need to get thru 1800.
The buying in the 1900 area is rally in overall bear market. That is my current view. I believe that one can expect buying on the first bb touch.