from johnny_utah Sold TNA and SPXL here. Keeping UWTI for a possible short covering spike if oil moves higher.
I do understand the intraday shorting if perhaps you were looking at a stop of 2090 perhaps. But I don't like the intraday shorting here with great potential to be stopped out. Myself, I am not ready to be shorting just yet.
Looking for breakout above 2090 .. The new normal low oil prices plus pump equity prices/ market capitalization to equal loss of wealth in energy sector. The wealth effect will still be engineered to uplift real estate prices and drive secondary industry growth.
It's possible---I would need to see it close above 2080 and then I would look for long entries. At the moment, I am a little more biased to the downside until that breakout happens or I see a good entry. Smaller Caps and Consumer Discretionary charts have broken down a bit . That coupled with the chart damage in the weekly and especially the daily have me slightly biased downwards.
I would offer that with the intraday trend being up, that we should be looking for longs here on the 1 min chart and there are several decent set ups here. If wanting to short on the 1 min, I would wait for confirmation that the intraday trend had changed and then employ shorts. Thanks for the charts
Shorting here would be ok I guess, but we would need a stop of 2090 or so right now. That stop would need to be less than or equal to 2% of your TLNW. In order to make the stop smaller, I would wait for confirmation that the intraday trend had changed and then start shorting with much smaller stops.
I understand that the potential on the shorts I was attempting was marginal at best, however, my system didn't generate any buy signals because of the nature of the pullbacks (too shallow). As a result, I decided to call it a day with +4 ticks on the ES (had another +1 tick trade earlier). Tomorrow is another day .
My suggestion if I may, would be to discard the marginals and try to take only the best entries. I believe a short below today's low would be a good entry and if day trading , perhaps look at a short below 2046 but must have a tight leash on that as the intraday trend continues to the upside. We don't have to take every signal we see. We can probably take most of the signals in the direction of the trend, but we need to be very picky and stingy on the countrend signals. Most will be wrong or will just be teases.