the stuff in your head your using as valid rationale is like watery gas,your engine(trading acct) will conk out,you need to sort thru what you know and what you think and get rid of every thing you think, trade the charts, the market, your trading off those assumptions in your head which over time will amount to 95% losing trades, mixed in with a few good ones that you made from just using the facts...you could trade breakeven and get slaughtered on just commissions... been there, done that...not to mention it's exp week, the worst results in forecasting short moves of any of the 4 weeks, its so manipulated to bring it in at option exp closing as many at zero as possible
you're defending your ego, the ego is not your friend, it's selfish like a crying 6 month old that we all were at one time, natural, but not to trading
Addiction to random rewards...the gambler remembers the pleasure, discards the pain, and always feels the BIG ONE is due any time now.