The fed tapering could be the catalyst. Fed in the 20's rained in liquidity that precipitated the market rout. One could argue all the fed did was remove toxic debt off its member banks balance sheet using taxpayer money. The actual money never hit joe plumber. The improving bank balance sheet supported financials and equities. The wealth effect is only being felt by people vested in the market. Most have left or have zero savings to invest. The economy is not sustainable in that most of its productive capacity is being used to support the non productive portion. USA ultimately needs Japanese style deflationary rates to sustain printing money for longer period of time. It's only way out to fund all the liabilities. To create Japanese style low rates in the market. The market needs to be crashed periodically and then brought back up gradually similar to post 1920's. Sustainability of government finances through printing debt is all that they care about. If you look at trends of late socially. We are being setup for a police state type situation. Our guns will be confiscated and access to your own capital will be restricted. Chris
A difference between 1920's and now is that we have algorithmic lemmings instead of human crowd psychology. The algos speed up any momentum based signals. Fund managers are the only human based transaction order flow left. Retail order flow is very small in comparison to past market declines.
Just a note, QE is not really money printing. Strictly speaking, it involves printing money, but at the same time, something very near money is being withdrawn from the private sector; government debt w/ near maturity. That is essentially indistinguishable from money. So called "private sector net financial assets" as the MMTers call it, is not increasing. However the low rates caused by the fed could result in inflation, but it seems in check at this point. If timed right, this could work very well in the short term and have no net effect in the long term.
Sold all TNA calls from last week, now wondering what to do with the puts I bought a couple days ago.