Short ES now to 1900, stop 1950. Stop doesn't matter. How much you risk beyond your last add at 1900, in total, (if and) when you take the loss, relative to your capital, is what matters. This is the year that traders will reveal their true colors, whether right or wrong. The ultimate base goal is to survive -- both in the short term, and over a career. Beyond that, in the short term, is luck. Thanks to all the short term traders who share their wisdom in making short term predictions, as well as sharing their reasoning for doing do. Volatility in 2014 will hopefully allow all to prosper, both bulls and bears. Good trading to all. -murica [EDITED BY MAGNA â Here is a link to the previous journal:] ES Journal Archive (2013)
Will absolutely be an interesting year. Read somewhere that if mkt is down after first 5 trading days higher prob of a down year.
This is a ridiculous "statistic" like "if January is down,whole year is probably down". Supposing that the variable we are observing is completely random, it's obvious that if any initial period is down (up), the whole period has higher probabilities of being down (up). This comes from the fact that the whole period will have the highest probabilities of being where it was after the initial period,which is given by definition. It's more or less like saying that x = x + y - y.
yeah, they are using the wrong definition. its impossible to buy the market at jan 1 after jan 31. Better is to look at return going from jan 31 forward and compare to average S&P return after 31 jan.