In the last posts you looked as if you were risking too much on these shorts.If I may give an advice, be careful because of two main possible dangers: - hidden information which can move markets much higher; - big players "clearing" the market from shorts before a big drop, just as it happened in 2007 (there were tremendous spikes up in most markets) Be sure to control risk in these difficult cases.
-First, thanks for your input. -With regards to the previous shorts, it wasn't a large bet. Knowing that the market rarely reverses in one quick order, I decided to scale in with small increments. But, all in all, the entire order was a relatively small one. -Hidden or obvious, the equity market is very extended (and everyone knows this). Of course, that's accommodated by both low-inflationary and low-growth economy. One misstep, however, this market will surely trip and break at least one of its leg. -I ain't so sure we will again repeat the big drop of 2008 (at least not in our lifetime). That type of event happens only once in 100 years. So I doubt there will be a mop-up by the institutions. However, yes, there will be major corrections*. *My 2-cents is that S&P will likely chop for the next few years, but the swing large enough (eg. 400-500 point swings) to play on both sides.
add 47 ,may get to todays nip at 45-45.5,may hold em for after close fed report..uvol/dvol for last 20 minutes is uvul plus 16,dvol plus 21
So why not go in the direction of the trend line (in this case, long), at least for a scalp? From what you say, it should be rewarding, with good risk control.
When in summer Bernanke announced a possible tapering,before a not so big market decline there was a good spike up. Even if they are not like in 2007, these moves can still be dangerous