The blue dotted line is today's 50% RTH level. It also coincides with yesterday's RTH low print. If we were to sell off further today, i.e., make new lows, I do not think it's likely we would retrace this far and trade back up here. Everything can happen of course, just don't think it's very likely.
you asked for opinions and that was my opinion now it seems I have been so wrong , markets make all of us humble real quick
Yes, just curious of the reasoning behind it. It was below even S3 and while I have not run the numbers in a while, it's usually a low probability of tagging that level on average. Good luck.
Connect the RTH lows of 23/9 and 30/9, its the bottom of a channel (thats obviously no longer valid cos of the boehner news).
Could you post a chart? I'm just watching this on a day-by-day basis and based on simple volatility analysis combined with a price target at the level I mentioned earlier, I thought it not to be impossible, just improbable. May very well see it tomorrow or another day.