you are going against the well established long term trend. We are already 20 points off the high. Look at daily chart. ES seldom has a 30 point downmove in a well established uptrend. Relative basis - gold down 110 points, ES down 10 points ==> ES is super strong and holding well. Although on a trade to trade basis anything can happen, but generally speaking going short here is low probability trade over the long run, especially considering dailies did brokeout last week from the range they were in.