Trade against a gap move. Gaps have a tendancy to fill but not always. And when they do fill it is not always a complete fill.
wonder if theres any statistical significance to that.. it would make sense for it to draw back.. that was to strong of a move for a complete gap fill... my thoughts are vol is a bit oversold on the short term.. we drift higher, maybe even draw back a little but generally move up.. vol stays in a low range... i'd love to hear a good reason to be short in the near term.. we break 1460 in the near term.. thats where i'm looking to put my money.. always willing to be wrong
trading is all about having confidence in a system that works and not just taking shots or hitting a homeruns. how do I know? cause i have been there. confidence (sound mindset) leads to execution: price does this, i do that, no questions asked, sometimes the best trade is the one u did not take. doesn't matter if your system is trading with the trend or against (this is harder), as long as it is proven out. this does not happen overnight nor is it a 9-5 job.
based on the strength of the move, most everyone will be long or looking to get long. Also as price retraces, people will step in. The price action is teaching everyone its free money to be long. Why even take the risk of shorting. The market had ample opportunities to react in a bearish way, but it never capitalizes on it. We could have gone lower but didn't. The congressman who inside trade to accumulate their fortunes pass on the information to the banks. The banks take price where they wish. Based on past behavior, the FED is teaching everyone to be 'long' equities.
My belief is that 2013 will be a down year in the ES. I currently have an order in to be short on a sell stop at 1423.00. I will post protective stop if trade is entered.