My next posting in this thread will be when ES has topped for more than a while. I will update when that occurs.
Very successful in identifying short term tops to date, but not interested in posting all the tops and bottoms. Those trades will be chronicled in the quintessential ES Journal. ---The top trading journal on the web today---
We've stair-stepped for better than 18 months, with the new-high "stair" lasting for ~5 weeks. But on 09/29 (~6weeks ago), rather than finish a 'stair' width of flattish/decline, we popped again, and except for 10/23-10/25, have meandered north since. A big tax change is a worthy "Regime Change" event, sure. "Repeal/Replace" would merit that, too. An unexpected FED/FOMC action would change things! But none of those things have happened -- we're just meandering north. We *have* had solid numbers from Europe and from Asia -- and maybe some "political unrest" (ennui??) is being baked in at home......... But what to me seemed a hugely predictable enterprise is now.... a LOT less so. I don't feel comfortable hazarding an opinion on (shorter-term) market direction right now.... I need "tells" that are once again reliable. Sheeesh.
Always follow the path of pain. I learned this trading the OTC Energy Markets - but it may be apropos for this thread as well.