I have decided to close my long market position and move the cash back into stable value. I was able to close at a break even. I closed it for 2 reasons. One is that I have started to get long beta-weighted SPY delta's through options positions I have been putting on the past few weeks. That means I am getting a bit heavier long SPY than I would want, so taking this position off of the board takes off a lot of static long deltas. The seconds is because of my perceived 'safety' of the trade. Now, I have found that good pin bar setups are hard to break, but they can be broken. Even with all of the volley's that have been thrown at this market, price has stayed buoyed and the setup is still in play. When you have price trapped inside of a pin bar for multiple days, the breakout is usually aggressive, either up or down. If it breaks down I suspect it will be violent, and if it breaks up it could be a real face melter. My play going forward is waiting for a breakup so my long SPY deltas can benefit, and if it violently breaks down I will be selling premium in that likely high IV environment. Good luck all
I think you are right that extended pin bars portend huge volatility spikes. Which way, I wouldn't predict personally.