Bradj, Not much I can tell you to help... struggling myself. All I know is: Trendlines: If you wait long enough, there WILL be one you can buy or short 90% of the time. ALWAYS.. The shorter the line the more likely it will be killed soon unfortunately.. Price levels: On non-news days quite useful but the irony is when you try to get the exact price, "they" seem to so good you won't get filled.. If you don't you simply have to pay up NOW and consider your stop taken.. If you are reading right "should" make more often than you lose.. This IS my biggest problem besides moving stops. As I am predisposed to swing trading (days), I think the longer the time-frame the better I CAN do and my odds of ending up in an asylum is reduced.. You may just target, say 2 3pt trades for the day and call it a day... to build confidence... Looks like the Europeans managed a break at 833 of a long trendline connecting yesterday's swing highs... Was crawling out of bed at the time.. no mans land now..
ES seems to be able to break almost any thing just enough to take out stops. When I decide to wait for my price I don't get filled. Trading one contract a disadvantage of sorts.. Keeps you out of trouble but you either 100% in or out. No half measures.. Acct:at $3500 so Off to paper trade. A hold all day or lose 3 pts for the day may be the only method that works for this trader.. The 180 incredible change of character from day to day also very difficult to handle mentally and emotionally.
trade off tl. Lower held nicely today. make the channel if you want, I usually have to wait a while to get in
I tell you it's not for lack of seeing the channels.. The break of first declining upper TL (broken by the bounce at 11:00) took me out of a short.. Of course this led to a longer TL that was the true one until around 12:45. Then I tried long 823 (Friday's bottom).. stopped out... A time comes when the machinations of the 3 minute activity makes it difficult to trade even the trendlines... The stop I use is just enough that if I am on the wrong side of the trade I "just" barely get stopped out.. adding to the losses and declining emotional control. A break may help.. even a short step away and return may help me "see" better.. Thanks ..
You have to find a way to flow with it in my opinion. Forcing a rigid structure isnt ever going to make much or be easy (mentally) for a person to operate. Let the market show you how to manage your position. Take no gain if its profitable, take no trade thats against the grain. Try to find a way to fade the short term in favor of the long term(the grain), even if its just a 2-4 tick price improvement. Reversals arent as common as they appear.
track... Do you anticipate what "should" happen at a price level... do you buy a support or sell a resistance price WITHOUT waiting to see if it does what it should?
you take em with stops,even if they are going to go thru,there is usually a pullback first,everyone is watching the same movie so they work most of the time
This actually just made me realize how I enter. Most of the time I am fading very small moves that, after reading ammo's post I now realize, are probably stops being run. Fade the stops, follow the trend. One of the best exercises that really opened my eyes initially was to do exactly the opposite of what you want to do. Don't over think it. In fact put no thought in at all except identifying your gut feeling and doing the exact opposite. Put the trade on at the low if it feels wrong or at what looks like "air", you must also manage the position by doing what feels wrong. IMO this must be done with real money or else it wont work, at least it didnt for me.
you can be wrong all day and make money, i shorted the last hour looking for a pullback sell 27 buy 26/sell 28 buy 27 all the way up, i was averaging up a short position but if you can see the wiggle you can still make money when your wrong,you are managing your acct ,thats trading,you were doing it with your spreads,this is just faster,dont let the mrket manage it.