High IQ you have there.... I have heard IQ is inversely correlates trading performance.. LOL...! Trust me I have seen the madness of the markets and understand my odds are terrible... Thanks..
I have done some sim trading and have found exactly that.... Once you isolate price levels it seems you won't get that price.. competition is fierce in ES. And yes the stealing is rife. Yes I plan to use trendlines ALL THE TIME.. I have noticed most days there is a very clear trendline at least half the day long that is faded.. Problem is drawing it too early (too steep) when it is unlikely to be the main one... This method along with price levels the only way I can imagine sanely handling ES other than scalping..
We know 788 crucial.. if 790 or higher holds then another trip to 800... If 788 is not held we could decline from open.. SP rarely holds over 2.5 percent gaps.. 780 (has been easily violated lately so not that strong), 775, 771 lower levels.. Incredible the effect Tim STILL has.
http://www.viddler.com/explore/killbliss/videos/3/ mark douglas interview, interesting comment on paper trading to real trading psychology about 40-45 minute mark
The stop is THE toughest thing to deal with.. The market seems to do it's best to make you kick the habit but you simply cannot give unlimited leash to the beast.. Prime example this Morning.. 788 short would have been kicked out for an unnecessary wasted trade..
Days like today.. Market was so steep early there were no sane TL's to draw.. Not a good day.. done.. I am reasonably accurate early to figure direction and was right again today but trashed the trades early that should have been kept.. Feels quite different from Sim acct trading.. IQ139 and monti1a may have been right...
Considering the atrocious day.. making a small adjustment... As soon as day's direction is clear will take a trade as close to support as possible and set 3pt stop. If it gets taken out, will try another halfway through session around 1pm for a second trade with the same 3pt stop.
You can't do that. Now you have to start over again and properly test your system. You can't just chang-it-up in the middle of the game and expect to go forward successfully if you are trading a cash account. Good Luck
In the 2 weeks simtrading (I know not very long) 80% of the time my first trade, allowed to run, would have been very profitable. The decision on the day's direction not easy to test (as it is mostly between the ears and price supports.). The closest I can come to testing is to determine how often ES travels in one direction only first, say 3 hrs of the day as this is the basis of my 'system'. Addditionally, how often does ES "infill" candles and when during the session does that tend to happen. As far as I can remember (years), there tends to be a morning trend, a rest mid-day that either continues the primary trend around 1:30 to 2:00pm or reverses the day (mostly occuring at market tops or bottoms). Thanks for your comments... I didn't think I was significantly changing my plan.