I've noticed that the term structure of ES futures has been backwardated for a while now and that the front month consistently trades at a discount to par. Usually the futures trade in a slight contango above par (although the "cost of carry" has been dramatically reduced by the interest rate being practically 0%). How bearish is a backwardated term structure? If traders in aggregate believed the market has made a solid bottom, wouldn't the term structure be in contango?
Not bearish at all. Nothing but normal arb calculations. Read the information at http://www.indexarb.com/