it seems as if the 10 year note future and ES (emini SP 500)...move exactly opposite to one another...when ES is soaring, 10 yr is tanking and vice versa...is this theory correct?...when one is bubbling up or down...the other is about to reverse...do you trade off of this and note this or?...like to start a discussion about this...been tracking it...what have you found?
similar inverse correlation occurs with the us indices and the yen. I have yet to determine the causality of the events - whether selloffs in equities provoke movements of capital towards the yen currency; or yen strengthening forces investors to unwind their carry trade positions. ahh.. causality.
I used to follow the Notes but no longer because I observed that the index futures initiate the moves most of the time, perhaps because the urgency to get in and out by the more mercurial index trading crowd.
Depends on what time period you look at. Minute? Hour? Day? Week? Looking at weekly data since 1951, I see a 7.1% correlation.