ES E-Mini Daily Trades Signals

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by MarketException, Oct 13, 2010.

  1. Size flashing in the order book happens HUNDREDS if not thousands times a day. Congratulations, you have just reached a new level of embarrassment.

    We could do this all year long. So, since you obviously really like that, I think we can all agree to declare you now ET'S OFFICIAL BITCH.
     
    #341     Jan 28, 2011
  2. I don't really think you have the IQ of an oyster (as you once suggested towards me). I think you are smarter than that. You are trying very hard not to understand my statements.
    I was not talking about those random size flashes. I was specifically observing the market depth to see if WinbornTraders signals are targeted by signal snatchers. After observing it for a while, in my judgment it was happening (not beyond reasonable doubt but more likely than not). Now you come in, without seeing what I have seen and without asking any detail, simply negate that as a possibility. I don't blame you for this, since it is an epidemic stupidity.
    But on the positive side, you seem to be out of PMS for now.
     
    #342     Jan 28, 2011
  3. We all know how much your judgement is worth. As much as your trading performance. There goes your stupid, paranoia theory to the toilets, BITCH... :)
     
    #343     Jan 28, 2011
  4. I don't mind that you keep bending over, but before you run out of money, come trade CL instead. We always welcome fresh, dumb money. Well, that's assuming you do have real money to trade with.
     
    #344     Jan 28, 2011
  5. Trades for Wednesday:

    [​IMG]
     
    • out1.jpg
      File size:
      66.3 KB
      Views:
      288
    #345     Feb 1, 2011
  6. joe4422

    joe4422

    Now look at option 2. 13 point stop, 4 point reward. This is why you've spent the last 3 months losing money.
     
    #346     Feb 1, 2011
  7. I think I have answered your concern about risk/reward several times before but I elaborate it here again.
    When you are looking at stop and target, you have to take into consideration their corresponding probability as well.
    Let's assume we do not know anything about a trade and we pick a random entry point. Then we pick a 4 point target and 13 point stop. The probability of reaching target is 13/(13 + 4) = 13/17 = 76.5%
    The probability of reaching stop is 4/17 = 23.5%.
    why? because out of every 17 times we get 4 losses of 13 points and 13 losses of 4 points. 4 * 13 = 13 * 4.
    This is an even trade before commission and slippage. You can change those numbers from 13 and 4 to any other number and you still get an even trade. You will not lower or increase your odds of winning buy increasing your target or decreasing your stop. Your profit expectancy remains the same regardless of you target/stop ratio.

    This was about random entry. In the case of signal # 2, I have calculated the probability to be about 91%.

    So out of every 100 times we expect
    91 wins of 4 points = 364
    8 losses of 13 points = 104 => net profit of 260 points or average 2.6 points per trade.

    I hope this is helpful for you to understand the concept of profit expectancy as opposed to risk/reward ratio.
     
    #347     Feb 1, 2011
  8. joe4422

    joe4422

    So, how's that 91% probability been working for you?
     
    #348     Feb 2, 2011
  9. It has worked for me.
    But your question indicates that you are still confused? If I say 2 + 2 = 4 and you really understand it, you will not ask me to show it. If I want to show it I will have to put two apples and then two more apples and ask you to count. Then I have to do the same, for 2 + 3 = 5, 1 + 2 =3, etc. If you really understand 2 + 2 = 4 on the mathematical level, then you don't need and does not matter to see examples.

    I will be glad to clarify it further only if you want to understand.
     
    #349     Feb 2, 2011
  10. Correction:
    because out of every 17 times we get 4 losses of 13 points and 13 winning of 4 points each. 4 * 13 = 13 * 4.
     
    #350     Feb 2, 2011