You must be reading my mind. Ideally I'd like to have a 70% win percentage - it fits my personality (not sure what that's saying about me, but that's the way it goes!). I don't mind the 1:1 risk/reward, either, as long as I'm winning that often. My initial thoughts were to try to achieve 60-65% as well - with the longer-term goal of jacking it up to a higher percentage. (Watching the Quah SVS has given me a good feel for this type of trading, and like you, I do like it.) About how many signals/trades do you get per day, and are you able to trade during a limited time window? I'd love to be able to quit after 11:30 or so, and maybe come back for the last hour, too. Completely avoid the middle of the day... Thanks very much for your suggestions - they are well-taken.
I average slightly more than 4 trades per day using 5m charts. If I switch to 3m charts I average 6 trades per day but the profit target (and stop loss) is smaller, so the effects of slippage + commissions is a higher % of my profits. btw, my results are very similar whether I use 2-10m bars. I prefer 5m as the ideal resolution while eliminating most of the "noise" in the shorter timeframes, but have very similar results with 4m or 3m. I think if you have a good method, you should be able to trade it on similar timeframes. Same goes for any indicators you may use. E.g. if you buy on 20-bar breakouts, the method should also do reasonable well on 18-bar or 22-bar breakouts. If you buy on pullback to 20-bar EMA, then test it on pullback to 18-bar or 22-bar EMA. If you trade on 5m chart, switch to 4m or 6m and your results should be similar. I like to do a 3D surface plot of multiple parameters across multiple timeframes and different values for the setups I use. This way I know that the methodology itself is sound and not just lucky. I only trade first 2 hours and last 2 hours of the day. I've run some tests on trading during the afternoon doldrums using volume/volatility filters but it's not worth your time to sit in front of the screen all afternoon for that 1-in-10 day where there's decent activity during that time. At least that's how it is for my particular method.
That really sounds very close to what I'd like to do. It seems like you've pretty much achieved the results I want. If you could explain more about your "3D surface plot" approach, that would be great. Or if there are any books you'd recommend... Thanks again, dottom, your contribution has been very valuable.