my apologies for the 'ES WARNING - new lows coming' thread i shouldn't have posted the thread titled as it was - sensationalism it only concerned the current correction, and the chart didn't explain much these days i'm concentrating on the 6E/eurusd and i'm afraid i was overly influenced by my euro analysis, believing the ES would correct as the euro might, and while the euro did sell off, the ES as you know made new highs, however i still expect new lows on the ES etc after the current correction completes i hope this thread clears things up and provides a better explanation of what i think is going on when the markets topped this January it was after closing on a major 61.8 level, near the longer measured 50, and just above 161.8 and 176.4 levels from projection fibos together, all these fibos levels provided a major signal the markets had topped - or at least peaked for the time being the first chart is a Weekly and illustrates what i'm talking about there's only 2 highs to draw the correction fibos from, the HH of wk of Oct 12/07 and the lower wk of May 23/08 which is the high used to draw the fibo from that produced the 61.8 level the market turned on during January 11 - 20 it's debatable which projection fibo is the correct one, the black or white and while the grey correction 50 level comes close, the blue 61.8 level gets the cigar second chart is a Daily, blue correction fibo from Weekly is now grey blue correction fibo shows LL price bounced - almost - off the 38.2 level, while it Closed on the grey 50 level, and is now rising to the blue 23.6 level the white projection fibos indicate price drops to 1020 and the 970 area which is bounded by the blue 61.8 and grey 38.2 levels. dates and wave counts are tentative third chart is 4 hour of the March ES contract displaying retracement fibos and Standard Error Channels there are several alternatives concerning what the price may do both in the short term correction as well as longer term correction: on the 4H, the price could rally to the 76.4 level, 85.4/white 50 level or even back up to the Feb 2 high (no 'new lows coming') before beginning a downtrend to new lows, which could begin after an announcement on Feb 16/17 by the EU ministers re the Greek debt - or is that too eurocentric to be applied to the ES ? price doesn't go higher, will start to drop after the London open ? Sun/Mon Feb 14/15; price drops until the EU Greek announcement 15/16 then rallies, correction over, drops longer term: the price could base and rally back up to the Jan 11 high forming a reversal formation - major major top, but multi-week process decline, base and rally to a new high, possibly 1230-60 area, and then the old addage - 'sell in May and go away' - a note that Greece has debt refunding issues April/May THE top is in and it's going to hell
nice call. if you stand on your head the rule where 95% of predictions are wrong and 95% of after the fact boasting is right, intact.
the basic question is if the previous HH was wave 5, or B of an ABC - in the process of completing C - wave 4, prior to a HH wave 5 charts: D, W