ES Correction - new lows coming

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by Wallace, Feb 14, 2010.

  1. my apologies for the 'ES WARNING - new lows coming' thread

    i shouldn't have posted the thread titled as it was - sensationalism
    it only concerned the current correction, and
    the chart didn't explain much

    these days i'm concentrating on the 6E/eurusd and i'm afraid i was overly influenced by
    my euro analysis, believing the ES would correct as the euro might, and while the euro
    did sell off, the ES as you know made new highs, however i still expect new lows on the
    ES etc after the current correction completes

    i hope this thread clears things up and provides a better explanation of what i think is
    going on

    when the markets topped this January it was after closing on a major 61.8 level, near the
    longer measured 50, and just above 161.8 and 176.4 levels from projection fibos
    together, all these fibos levels provided a major signal the markets had topped - or at
    least peaked for the time being

    the first chart is a Weekly and illustrates what i'm talking about
    there's only 2 highs to draw the correction fibos from, the HH of wk of Oct 12/07 and the
    lower wk of May 23/08 which is the high used to draw the fibo from that produced the
    61.8 level the market turned on during January 11 - 20
    it's debatable which projection fibo is the correct one, the black or white
    and while the grey correction 50 level comes close, the blue 61.8 level gets the cigar

    second chart is a Daily, blue correction fibo from Weekly is now grey
    blue correction fibo shows LL price bounced - almost - off the 38.2 level, while it Closed
    on the grey 50 level, and is now rising to the blue 23.6 level
    the white projection fibos indicate price drops to 1020 and the 970 area which is bounded
    by the blue 61.8 and grey 38.2 levels. dates and wave counts are tentative

    third chart is 4 hour of the March ES contract displaying retracement fibos and Standard
    Error Channels

    there are several alternatives concerning what the price may do both in the short term
    correction as well as longer term
    correction: on the 4H, the price could rally to the 76.4 level, 85.4/white 50 level or even
    back up to the Feb 2 high (no 'new lows coming') before beginning a downtrend to new
    lows, which could begin after an announcement on Feb 16/17 by the EU ministers re the
    Greek debt - or is that too eurocentric to be applied to the ES ?
    price doesn't go higher, will start to drop after the London open ? Sun/Mon Feb 14/15;
    price drops until the EU Greek announcement 15/16 then rallies, correction over, drops

    longer term: the price could base and rally back up to the Jan 11 high forming a reversal
    formation - major major top, but multi-week process
    decline, base and rally to a new high, possibly 1230-60 area, and then the old addage -
    'sell in May and go away' - a note that Greece has debt refunding issues April/May
    THE top is in and it's going to hell
  2. i wouldn't be surprised if you original analysis is true
  3. i wouldn't be surprised if tidalwave=wallace
  4. I would B)
  5. nice call. if you stand on your head

    the rule where 95% of predictions are wrong and 95% of after the fact boasting is right, intact.
  6. the basic question is if the previous HH was wave 5, or B of an ABC - in the process of
    completing C - wave 4, prior to a HH wave 5

    charts: D, W