what tick number constitutes program buy/sell (+/- 600)? i thought about making a tick index of the s&p 500 & dow, thinking that equity programs focus on them to move futures
This is what I use........... http://www.charthub.com/images/2010/03/30/FulcrumTICK1_Min Partial BUY program........... +600 to +799 Full BUY program................ +800 and above Partial SELL program.......... -600 to -699 Full SELL program............... -700 and lower Equities market showing +400 to -400 is just noise....overall equities activities at the time causing more neutral bias.
So the point of watching any particular Buy Program is to see if there is short covering inventory grab and ditto for any Sell Program with a long covering inventory grab... ?? they are more likely to do important inventory GRAB's during these Programs AMT?
Major inventory grab events are not that common, when the market is cleaning out all the last held LONG or SHORT inventory that has been resting in the market. Well over 95% of the time it does take Equities BUY or SELL program activity to get to the point the last held inventory finally capitulates and says "screw this" in the futures market. The last few days in the ES we have had growing SHORT inventory into each new slightly higher high (SHORT accumulation). We have also had the last few days significant held LONG inventory unwinding into the pullbacks....to the point on Friday we had a major LONG inventory grab. Within a minute or so of the last LONG inventory going to neutral, the Equities SELL program activity which drove the market lower (as held LONG inventory covering out flat dominates the order flow in the ES) came to an end. Those bigger liquidity players SHORT in the ES from the highs, seeing the last LONG inventory supply go neutral, caused them to accelerate "market order" driven profitable covering (SHORT covering rally starts). On Friday, Equities actual came in as buyers again with BUY program activity right into this initial SHORT covering acceleration in the ES order flow.....and back up we go!. Any of the middle of the days range sellers who were still holding SHORT inventory (who did not cover off the days lows) were forced into additional SHORT covering in the ES with the continued Equities BUY program activity......more up we go! If you spend some time watching all this supply and demand activity, you will see many times a week were Equities is taking advantage of the volume distribution imbalances in the ES.
so major short resting inventories are typically at HOD and vise versa. and this is the only place you look for buy/sell programs. also when this inventory is burned up lets say 5 points above the high of the day or previous day prices typical reverses, because big players need to find these inventory pockets to cover or put on a new position thanx
You're welcome. The guys here aren't answering your question. You simply asked why prices continued to rocket after the bounce and not just peak and retrace (or stay flat). The answer is after the fact. The position is held for a certain period of TIME and then closed. Zero emotion involved. You need to discover a strategy for that IF you want to play that game (although you sacrifice other areas IMO). PM me if you'd like.
Significant quantities of resting SHORT or LONG inventory (10,000 contracts or greater in a very small range of price) are not necessarily at a days HOD....these areas are usually at the "edges" of a multi-day/multi-week range of price. On occasion these significant quantities of resting inventory can form WITHIN a multi-day/multi-week range of price. In the past several weeks, we have had several major SHORT inventory grab events. These events have occured into the market pushing some minimal range extension above previous highs. Once the SHORT inventory is all neutralized (significant held SHORT inventory vacant from the market.....bigger liquidity participants in futures go neutral) then we have had pullbacks back into the previous range of price. Not until a brand new supply of initiated sellers comes back into the market before you will see Equities very active again. As futures SHORT inventory starts to build back up, then Equities will again work their BUY program pumps trying to force this next group into SHORT covering (creating a rally in the markets to drive prices higher). We have had a shift in the supply & demand game the last few days as I have mentioned earlier. Now we have Equities running their BUY programs as the market is testing highs, but they are not getting the growing SHORT inventory in futures to unwind. Newly initiated selling in the ES at each of the recent highs is now building the overall held SHORT inventory....we are now seeing the bigger liquidity players in the futures starting to commit to our recent highs with substantial liquidity. Next week we should definitiely see some volatility expansion. Commercials in futures are loaded up here, so let's see what Equities can do to challenge those participants substantial SHORT position.