GDP was 5%+ the first quarter, now low 2% the second quarter. That recovery. Or don't you follow the tech stocks? Iran is just more BS for the $5 billion a year we already pour into Bush's Terror regime. Crude peaked around this time last year, today it tanked $2 going into hurricane season, another message by the market.
And why should this path be any more likely then the alternative? I've always been amused by the absurdity of such posts.
This guy called the October low, the May top and the July low. While a lot of people have been scalping, he's catching the BIG moves. I went long at 1262 myself. Might be worth keeping tabs on his views. http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/
5% to 2%? wow the economy is tanking and in a recession. yeah i trade tech stocks every day.most tech stocks have had good earnings. They fell because the market is discounting down the line no the past.i guess the market runs forever. we've had 4 years of up it's time for a serious deep hit to the market and it's coming. this run the last 4 weeks is a low vol bs august run to suck people in. the trap door opens in the next 6 weeks
I position trade techs. Semi's are still cheap. In six weeks we can be at SPX 1380 ... and retesting the highs in the NDX. Four years is nothing compared to the 90's. But I'll be happy with a top at the end of 2007.
semi's are always dirt cheap at the top. earnings have been booming and the semi cycle is heading down. look at adi,amat,nsm,mrvl and brcm. all missed and warned
The top? The top was in January. Many have already lost over 50% of their value, and are just beginning to rebound. The recent warnings were already discounted. The SOX dropped over 30% in six months. That's the third time it's dropped that much since the bull market began in 2002. To me that's a normal correction before heading higher. Just like the 8% drop in the SPX and the 18% drop in the NDX. Not seeing it as the beginning of something bigger, but just a normal pullback in an ongoing bull market. Opinions make markets. Good luck!
no i meant the top in earnings from semi's. sure most stocks have corrected hard but the problem is earnings have just now peaked. sure they could run the semi's from oct -dec. i agree the stocks turned down ahead of the earnings and when the earnings bottom the stocks will turn up way ahead but thats a long ways off. this is also the 3rd or 4th longest bull market in history so it's long in the tooth. anything can happen and i'll react to all events wether its long short or sideways