Interesting post but how/why/where do you get the idea that most people do not believe in what they are doing or trying to accomplish when it comes to trading? Have you heard or read this somewhere?
This question has been mulled over many times by many people. Reference: "Thematic Origins of Scientific Thought" by Prof. Holton (former assistant to Prof. P.Frank friend of Albert Einstein and successor to Einstein's chair in Prague)
all my experience comes from real life examples i have seen over many years of trading --- who i have seen succeed and who i have seen fail {and then give up}. The people i have seen fail always seemed to be in the incorrect "psychological" environment from which to succeed. they never believed they had a chance or that they could "figure out" how to trade. this group always went into trades and system trials from a mentality of imminent defeat or there is probably no way this will work for me --- they always had the common denominator of an improper attitude to succeed and these people always seemed to surrender early. the people that i have seen succeed at trading always had very opposite mentalities.
I added this chart to another thread where they are discussing the TICK. I haven't used the TICK or TRIN for many years now. I made this chart about 5 or 6 years ago. While I used the TICK for some time....you need to be very careful how you use it. The TICK is based on the NYSE and all its stocks. Many use it for the e-mini S&P 500 and the ER. The problem is....there are many more stocks in the NYSE....and while many in the S&P 500 are in the NYSE....this difference needs to be taken into consideration. Also....the ER is based on small cap....not the same as the stocks in the NYSE....which is totally different. When I did use the TICK....I used the Data only....didn't care about plotting it on a chart. I only needed to Glance at the Data....to see what was happening. I use TradeStation....and I believe they now have a TICK for the ER. They also have one for the NQ. And....of course....they have the TIKI for the YM. My trading....my charts....is much simpler....don't need all the other indicators. This chart is based on my observations over the years....just my opinion only. Other traders may have values that are different.
VSTScalper, That is one beautiful chart. THANKS! edit: In addition, perhaps one could use a Russell 2000 TICK/TRIN instead of the NYSE TICK/TRIN. Might be useful.
There is no possible way to eliminate losing trades from the process of trading... period, end of story. Traders who funnel precious time & energy down that rabbit trail are heading in the absolute wrong direction. The cure for fearing loss is gaining confidence in ability to manage winning trades correctly. The ER specifically is a rather volatile market, easily the most "noisy" emini symbol. But... it is also the most dynamic, and commonly runs 4pts to 8pts thru intraday swings. Successful ER traders need to fixate on developing a method to #1: filter probable near-term direction and #2: identify key entry point signals in the chart. That is where traders MUST focus all of their time & efforts in development. Those are the only two requirements for trading the ER (or any market) symbol. "Loss elimination" folly seems like a productive path to the neophyte, but it's a total waste of time. As the other veteran traders in this thread noted, learning to keep losses contained while <i>learning to let profits run thru normal market action</i> (i.e. forget about the scalpy stuff) is the correct path to consistent success. BTW... in my opinion, the ER is an experienced trader's market. For people new to trading or the eminis, NQ - ES - YM are much more methodical and manageable in that order of preference. Unless a trader can make consistent money in those emini symbols, the ER is not where newbies will succeed. ER traders love the volatile dynamics of that symbol, but always remember volatility is a two-edged sword :>) Hope this helps Austin
As futures contracts are themselves leading indicators, you are asking for a leading indicator for a leading indicator. Good luck! Due to the efficient market (theory), you quest for profitability will never be found whith an indicator. You will have to be a bit cleverer than that I am afraid to enjoy long term profitability on a consistent basis. NYSE Tick/Tock whatever? PLEEEEESE!