Er Trade For Monday

I am looking for a short trade on the ER at the 813.70 to 814.20
area with a target of 792 and possibly 785. The reason is in the attached chart.

 

you can't see my reason for the target on first chart . Here is a
clarification on target area.

 

I see indecision here. Seems to me it could go either way.

 

It can always go either way, you only take this trade if it goes
to the designated level to complete the pattern. We don't know that it will go there but I know what I will do if it does.

 

There is a more compellling reason for a short on monday
and a short back to the low of friday on the S&P 500 futures

At 10:49 cst the s&p premium and the russell premium both hit new lows for the day

there was no evidence of divergence neither was their any evidence that the trin and vix had concluded a trend up.


Therefore, the compelling evidence based on leading indicators is that Monday the S&P 500 futures will drop back to at least 1418:00... unless new information on Monday morning contradicts this.

 

GGuy, where will you be looking to get short on the ES?

 

GGuy,
Therefore, the compelling evidence based on leading indicators is that Monday the S&P 500 futures will drop back to at least 1418:00... unless new information on Monday morning contradicts this. [/B][/QUOTE]

What "leading indicators" are you speaking of?

 

Price is the last thing you should ever look at to take a trade.


We never EVER look at price. We look at divergence on 5 different levels

Trin
Vix
SP Prem
Nasdaq Prem
Russell Prem

we track divergence levels to determine where to take a trade

on monday we will examine these levels.. on every 1/4 point move on the ES

If we are higher on the trin and the vix than the levels shown here we will be divergent.

If we are lower than the levels shown here on the Premium feeds we will also be divergent.

When we will short will be dependent on the extent of divergence.
es trin vix prem ns pm rs pm
1433.25 1.29 14.60 10.38 17.98 5.69
1433.50 1.28 14.57 10.43 17.89 5.80
1433.75 1.19 14.59 10.92 18.77 6.66
1434.00 1.02 14.40 10.11 18.01 5.75
1434.25 1.15 14.51 10.10 18.57 6.01
1434.50 0.98 14.33 10.30 17.78 5.83
1434.75 0.95 14.32 10.14 18.02 5.93
1435.00 1.07 14.36 10.19 17.92 6.61
1435.25 1.02 14.29 10.28 17.74 6.21
1435.50 0.98 14.28 10.17 18.18 6.24
1435.75 1.01 14.25 10.27 18.42 6.41
1436.00 0.96 14.33 10.43 19.28 7.13
1436.25 1.04 14.47 10.59 18.33 6.16
1436.50 0.99 14.43 10.59 18.55 6.05
1436.75 1.00 14.43 10.45 18.14 5.94
1437.00 0.96 14.41 10.48 18.05 6.28
1437.25 0.93 14.39 10.57 19.03 6.82
1437.50 0.93 14.35 10.29 17.64 6.23
1437.75 0.98 14.34 11.21 17.98 6.08
1438.00 0.90 14.34 10.32 18.00 6.66
1438.25 1.01 14.32 10.55 19.56 6.65
1438.50 0.95 14.28 10.22 18.20 6.43
1438.75 0.94 14.33 10.98 19.60 6.99
1439.00 0.97 14.24 10.98 18.87 7.15
1439.25 1.19 13.64 10.84 19.50 6.27
1439.50 1.29 13.64 10.97 19.25 5.96
1439.75 0.86 14.14 10.78 20.00 6.37
1440.00 1.12 13.56 10.96 18.78 7.43

 

as mentioned

if you can establish a standard unit of measurement you can measure how far a unit has gone over time and predict how far it will move.

therefore.... among other things my leading indicators are .. what was shown in my last posting.

you heard it here .. before it occurs.

 

We will short will our projections and divergence reach sufficient levels


the Trin must his a pivot at or below these levels


1.0700
1.0600
0.9700
0.9200
0.7400

The vix must hit a pivot at or below these levels


14.4900
14.4000
14.3600
14.3500
14.3300
14.1700
14.1200
14.0000
13.9700

once these levels are reaches on a pivot..... we willl look for divergence

and trade accordingly..................