I donât understand the question; I apologize, but I donât understand. The way it reads (to me) is a mutual fund type of thing (i.e. people putting in cash and one person trading it). So, please rephrase as I donât want to answer until I truly understand what youâre asking because itâs not fair to me- or you- to comment otherwise.
I post actual trades when it is relevant. I was not aiming to toot my own horn as I saw no need to post charts in this specific instance; I was aiming to make a point. My point in this blog post: traders should focus on opportunities in stocks which are not generally placid. I aim for trades in which I feel there is at least a chance to make at least 20 cents easily in a stock in two minutes or less. Obviously, I do not make at least 20 cents easily in every trade I do, but that is the goal. Thus, if a stock traded in a range of 34 cents the day before, I tend not to trade it. Whenever I discuss specific trades, I go into immense detail as I have at other spots on this forum. For instance, here: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...perpage=6&highlight=erik kolodny&pagenumber=3 or here: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...perpage=6&highlight=erik kolodny&pagenumber=4 To directly address the issue out of deference to a very fair question (as cut and pasted from my trade data): 03/01/10 09:46:04 FCX SLD SHRT 1000 76.36 03/01/10 09:46:04 FCX SLD SHRT 40 76.35 03/01/10 09:46:04 FCX SLD SHRT 160 76.35 03/01/10 09:46:41 FCX BOT 1200 76.2399 And 03/01/10 09:30:44 BRK/B SLD SHRT 600 79.95 03/01/10 09:30:44 BRK/B SLD SHRT 800 79.95 03/01/10 09:32:25 BRK/B BOT 600 79.69 03/01/10 09:32:25 BRK/B BOT 200 79.68 03/01/10 09:33:32 BRK/B BOT 200 79.48 03/01/10 09:33:33 BRK/B BOT 200 79.48 03/01/10 09:33:33 BRK/B BOT 200 79.4798 And 03/01/10 09:42:10 NUVA SLD SHRT 400 41.99 03/01/10 09:42:10 NUVA SLD SHRT 200 41.99 03/01/10 09:42:10 NUVA SLD SHRT 200 41.99 03/01/10 09:42:11 NUVA SLD SHRT 200 41.9802 03/01/10 09:42:33 NUVA BOT 200 41.76 03/01/10 09:42:33 NUVA BOT 400 41.7798 03/01/10 09:42:48 NUVA BOT 400 41.819
IMHO, your journal is a little annoying as it looks like you are not posting a real journal but an ad to sell something. You show trades of 3 stocks not mentioned anywhere else therefore cut the list of stocks in your posts and only talk about the stocks you actually trade. No one here cares about who made a new high. We already know. All it does is make your posts long. The trades with the time stamps is a great idea. Thanks for posting. You should continue posting those and charts if you want anyone to read your journal. Otherwise it will hit alot of ignores. Good luck.
Re: âIMHO, your journal is a little annoying as it looks like you are not posting a real journal but an ad to sell something,â every piece here is simply my thoughts for that particular day. That's it. Furthermore, I tend to say things such as this from March 3: âKeep your focus on the stocks in the news and avoid all momentum trading until/unless the market perks up.â Or from March 4: âIn the interim, continue to trade less frequently and in smaller size at that until things perk back up else if youâre a trend-following minute-to-minute day trader all youâll do is leave at the end of any given day of work frustratedâ¦and poorerâ¦than when you walked into the office in the morning.â Or from March 4 in response to a comment: âI'll private IM you on this one because I don't want to do anything commercial per se on this forum as I just want this thread to be dedicated to the journal out of deference to any readers much less the spirit of Elite Trader.â If I wanted to post an ad to sell something, I can assure you I wouldnât use phrases like that. All I can do is hammer out near stream-of-consciousness style what I see/think. Re: âYou show trades of 3 stocks not mentioned anywhere else therefore cut the list of stocks in your posts and only talk about the stocks you actually trade.â Youâre missing the point. I provided those as examples for what it was I was trying to say: people focus on narrow moving stocks that they hope will make sudden big moves; instead, focus on the stocks actually moving. I was just showing what can be missed. Yesterday, for instance, two traders in my firmâs chatroom were bantering about a trade in TRA. TRA had barely moved in an hour and its performance is largely tied to that of CF. Not only did they both ended up losing small in TRA, they missed a bigger trade in AIG which fell 32 cents in 1 ½ minutes. Re: âNo one here cares about who made a new high. We already know. All it does is make your posts long.â I for one deeply care as do many of the traders at my firm. Many times, the concept makes my day. Nearly every single day, I mention the importance of ârelative strength/relative weaknessâ plays. I wrote about it here from Feb. 1 on the blog if you wish to view the link: http://epiphanytrading.blogspot.com/search?q=relativity Yesterday, as an example, I noted âAAPL- closed at a new high amid positive buzz following Cramerâs recommendation on âMad Moneyâ on Thursday nightâ in the stock section. I also noted as I do every day in the blog (cutting and posting the relevant passage) that âIf something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or (the other condition)â¦.â As discussed in more detail on our chat room yesterday, AAPL cracked thru unchanged after opening sharply higher; it fell to 218.82 (down slightly on the day after initially gushing ever higher) before bouncing a little. I said there (at 9:57AM ET) that if AAPL touched a new low after the little bounce, I was going to short it thru a new low. Here is my trade: 03/08/10 09:58:15 AAPL SLD SHRT 200 218.8 03/08/10 09:58:15 AAPL SLD SHRT 100 218.8 03/08/10 09:58:15 AAPL SLD SHRT 45 218.8 03/08/10 09:58:15 AAPL SLD SHRT 120 218.8 03/08/10 09:58:15 AAPL SLD SHRT 35 218.8 03/08/10 09:58:15 AAPL SLD SHRT 100 218.82 03/08/10 09:58:15 AAPL SLD SHRT 100 218.82 03/08/10 09:58:15 AAPL SLD SHRT 300 218.8 03/08/10 09:58:31 AAPL BOT 100 218.67 03/08/10 09:58:31 AAPL BOT 100 218.67 03/08/10 09:58:31 AAPL BOT 100 218.68 03/08/10 09:58:32 AAPL BOT 200 218.7 03/08/10 09:59:24 AAPL BOT 300 218.33 03/08/10 09:59:32 AAPL BOT 200 218.389 Thus, I didnât make a fortune, but a $350 or so profit in a minute and 17 seconds is not a bad thing- on a trade I never would have done had I not realized that AAPL closed near a high (as noted on yesterdayâs blog) the day before and was relatively weak that morning. Re: âThe trades with the time stamps is a great idea. Thanks for posting. You should continue posting those and charts if you want anyone to read your journal. Otherwise it will hit a lot of ignores. Good luck.â Youâre right. I should include more of the actual trades within the context of that dayâs point in the blog and I will take that advice and go with it when possible. Thanks for the feedback and good luck to you too.
I'd rather be too detailed in making sure I answer the questions as completely as possible than too succinct.
WED. MAR. 10- When In Doubt, Get Out In April 2000, I was dating a girl who I met through some friends. She was somewhat shy, but seemed to be a very nice person. Right around her birthday, we were talking about said birthday and somehow the topic of surprise parties came up. She noted sheâd never been thrown a surprise party before. I donât know if that was a hint or what, but I of course got right on it. Through mutual friends, I procured her best friendâs phone numbers/e-mail addresses and put something together. She was floored (or certainly seemed it). Fast forward three weeks. On my birthday, I gotâ¦nothing. Not a phone call. Not an e-mail. Nothing. I didnât want a surprise party, but you know, a âHappy Birthday, Erikâ would have been nice. The next day was the end of our relationship. Just over 2 ½ month later, I dated the last girl Iâd ever date as this one (Robyn) became my wife just over a year later. While stuff like this may be more interesting than the stock stuff I discuss here typically, there is a business-related point. The day after my birthday 2000, my losses were cut. Was I upset (and am I still annoyed)? Yes. Would it have been much worse to have stuck it out? Yes. Would I have missed out on a much better opportunity in the imminent future? Yes. Guess what? It is the same trading stocks. Part of a traderâs life is encountering difficult/adverse trades. Itâs going to happen- and to most of us- it is going to happen daily in some fashion. The trick is cutting your losses and awaiting the inevitable better opportunities that will tumble your way. I abhor when I hear someone say âI canât get outâ of a bad position. You can always get out. It just may not be at a price agreeable to you. But if you are short, say 2000 C from 3.67, you short 2000 more at 3.68, you short another 4000 at 3.69, and another 7000 at 3.70 because, you know, it just canât go higherâ¦yet itâs 3.72 bid and you just want out, guess what? First, it means you didnât read what I wrote last Friday nor listen to our 15 minute discussion about it on the morning call that day regarding adding to losing positions when they are rapidly going against you nor did you have basic respect for trend tradingâ¦link to the blog entry can be found here: http://epiphanytrading.blogspot.com/search?q=don't+fight+a+tidal+wave *But* it does *not* mean that you cannot simply cut your losses when you are wrong. What you do if it is 3.72 to 3.73 with three million shares on the offer and you want to get out in the immediate-term due to emotion or prudence or a combination of both, you cue up an order at 3.73 and you hit your buy button for your 15,000 shares. Sure, you lost $590 grossâ¦but you didnât lose $1.500 more when it went up another dime in a relatively short time frame. I am well aware that some stocks are going to be less liquid than C, but the principle is the same. If you want to get out (right or wrong), you donât wait nor hope nor try to save a penny a share; the option is always there for you to simply hit the button, take whatever liquidity is there, and youâre out. Once your mind is clear, you can then start doing what youâre supposed to do and get your money back (and more). But to say you cannot get out of a bad situation is utter rubbish; it is much better to exit expeditiously if youâve screwed up and start anewâ¦than to hang on to the person who didnât so much as text you on your birthday and miss out on âthe oneâ when the opportunity came alongâ¦.or of course to hang onto a bad trade all the while missing out on better opportunities. Markets throughout the world are little changedâ¦in Asia, Tokyo was down 0.03% while Hong Kong was up 0.003%. Like I said, little changed. In Europe, prices are marginally higher by about ¼%. The dollar and oil are a little stronger as well. Futures are modestly higher again as thereâs no earthshaking news. Look for a continued gentle rise higher with choppiness in individual stocks but no major move with the corollary that financial stocks are very strong this morning- if that holds and/or builds, we could set up for a bit of a rally today. Focus on those aforementioned financials, big cap techs, and the various stocks in the news/stock offerings for trades today. Reiterating- If the whole story is not there - If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified. If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified- Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern ITMN- FDA panel backed its lung drug Pirfenidone FACT- received buyout bid of 27 from ABT AGN- FDA expanded approval of Botox for elbow and wrist spasticity AEO- closing its Martin+Osa stores AONE- poor earnings, but signed contract with NAV MGH- closed near a high after discovering a significant gold zone on the Ouijaba property in Canada CMC- closed near a high after takeover chatter ruled the day yesterday WNC- closed near a high; secured three-year purchase agreement from Swift Transportation after the close yesterday SKT- featured on âMad Moneyâ last night CYTK- CK-2017357 granted orphan drug designation for ALS treatment OCLS- received FDA 510k clearance for Microcyn skin and wound HydroGel Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern ABT- acquiring FACT PSS- lukewarm earnings EQT- share offering SLXP- poor first quarter earnings guidance NAV- poor earnings AGO- share offering SVN- closed near a low after posting poor earnings UAUA- island reversal in closing near a low after issuing positive revenue data EDAP- island reversal after receiving Japanese approval for its Sonolith I-Sys PLCE- poor earnings JCG- decent earnings, but traded off a little after-hours Earnings: WED MAR 10 BEFORE AEO PLCE SOL WED MAR 10 AFTER CLNE FCEL GYMB MW Good luck today. Epiphany Trading, LLC www.epiphanytrading.com Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist Brendan P. Byrne- President Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
THURS. MAR. 11- Handling Success With Dignity I posted arguably my favorite blog post on September 28â¦it is something that took me about two hours to think about and type. Here is the link for those who do not remember: http://epiphanytrading.blogspot.com/...8_archive.html In the piece, I discussed âatoningâ for trading sins. I listed a number of things I needed to work on and a lesser number of things I did not do in the last 12 months. Number one on that list was this: âI have never not one time called out how much money I made in a stock the instant I exited a trade nor have I even clapped my hands and exclaimed how well I did when right. It is obnoxious boorish behavior and impresses nobody when done over time. I did it for the last time ever 1 ½ years ago and saw a look of genuine jealousy and anger from a good friend of mine and hated myself instantaneously. Reputations speak for themselves.â I absolutely need to elaborate. When we saw the story of Baby Jessica rescued from that well on October 16, 1987 in the midst of the markets collapse, we were all universally happy when she was rescued. When Cal Ripken broke the consecutive games streak in baseball on September 6, 1995, fans collectively grinned in the midst of the good guy winning. Whether it is a uniform group as in the worldwide populace or a subgroup in the 2nd example, everyone cheered together and was happy together. The human psyche reacted in a positive way to good stories thus the spontaneous applause and burst of tears in both of those examples. But, you know, it just isnât the same in trading. Do not get me wrong. I think I speak for every single day trader I personally know when I say that we all want to do well, but we also want one another to do well. But in the heat of the trading arena, basic decorum is oftentimes lost, forgotten, or totally utterly ignored. In all of the years that Iâve been doing this, one thing that has always amazed me is the propensity, desire, and inclination of traders to trumpet to the world how much money they make on a particular trade- particularly when they selfishly did the trade alone- particularly when they did not announce they were in the trade. These same people will not denote their losses, but will be happy to say something like âI made $500 in Goldman Sachs just nowâ to nobody and no one. But loud enough for all to hear. Or they will clap their hands loudly in pronouncing their gloating when many others did not hear of much less do the trade. The reason of course stems from giddiness and the desire for everyone to know that that particular trader is good at what he/she does. Oftentimes, malice is not meant, but there are consequences that inevitably occur. First, that trader tends to lose money on his/her next few trades net-net. The ego has a funny way of being overcome rapidly. Basically, the trader in this situation tends to forget what made him/her successful, thinks he/she is ready fur anything, and of course gets bludgeoned. The other two things occur due to perception. The trader who is not doing quite as well as the braggart feels resentful. This can lead to anger which leads to things like overtrading, containing aforementioned anger, and creating a desire to âkeep upâ (which by the way is ironic since people who tend to call out monetary amounts tend to lose money overall). Conversely and embarrassingly, a trader who is making substantially more money (even on the same trade) as the braggart tends to think less of him/her intellectually and personally. What I do chatroom-wise is call out every major trade I want to do and simply list the prices (win or lose) where I entered/exited) along with the fractional amount of shares I did. However, I will never ever never talk money (unless directly asked at a time far removed from the trade and only for educational purposes at that, i.e. posting a trade to back up a point at a much later date) because not only is it nobodyâs business, all it can do is create resentment. Plus, frankly, I find it obnoxious and repulsive. The net of all of this is to truly realize that we really are in all of this together else we wouldnât be trading for a living. But, like sticks and stones, words can come back to harm a trader who calls out how much money they made on any given trade in many more ways than one- from having the chip on his/her shoulder inevitably knocked off since it is inevitably the traders who are losing overall (even if they are having a good run) who are guilty of this to losing the respect of his/her peers. Markets in Asia were generally higher overnight with Tokyo up 1% and Hong Kong ahead a relatively small 0.1%. In Europe, markets are just south of unchanged. Currencies and commodities are quiet too. Ho-hum. Futures are- gasp- pretty much unchanged. It is relatively quiet but for selected financials and techs with things like AIG and C trading higher again early this morning. The two notable differences are that big cap tech and big cap financials are trading slightly lower across the board and the newsflow overseas was a bit more negative with China once again warning of inflationary pressures and strikes in Greece intensifying (which dragged the futures down over ½% at one point). So, look for a downside bias off of the openâ¦the first half hour will likely tell the tale for the day. If the market holds and the smaller financials hold, the market holds and rallies a littleâ¦if not, the market eases more. Tricky session with muted moves overall yet individual stocks will likely trade with more volatility today than they have in awhile as the newsflow has picked up. Reiterating- If the whole story is not there - If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified. If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified- Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern GHM- closed near a high TEAR- announced TLC Vision will be incorporating TearLab in eight of its U.S. refractive surgery centers to study Dry Eye Disease symptoms as they relate to LASIK surgery NUVA- closed near a high GYMB- great earnings CLNE- good earnings SMTC- good earnings OLP- closed near a high after posting great earnings VICR- closed near a high after posting good earnings MDR, WLT- on âMad Moneyâ last night BKE- decent earnings DVN- announced sale of its assets in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico, Brazil, and Azerbaijan to BP for $7 billion; noted that its after-tax proceeds for its divestiture program will exceed estimates AIG- Taiwan will likely decide on approval of Nan Shan Taiwanese unit to a Hong Kong entity by June Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern MW- poor earnings ROVI- convertible offering AONE- closed near a low after posting earnings JCG- closed near a low after posting earnings CSR- filed to offer 20 million shares JTX- poor earnings Earnings: THURS MAR 11 BEFORE BKE CSUN JTX LDK SFD THURS MAR 11 AFTER ARO GG NSM PLL ZQK ZUMZ Good luck today. Epiphany Trading, LLC www.epiphanytrading.com Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist Brendan P. Byrne- President Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
FRI. MAR. 12- Adapting When Things Change Everyone has different aspects of their personality that can become accentuated. Furthermore, people tend to act differently in different situations. And donât begin to think âI donâtâ because everyone does. I am as much of a âwhat you see is what you getâ person as youâll ever meet yet I catch myself changing personalities involuntarily in different situations. For instance, around my daughters, I soften my voice tone, hold back any competitive spirit I have with anything in doing what I can to be nurturing to them. Around my wife, Iâll be anything from showing that same spirit to snippy when we have a disagreement about something. Around my friends, I can be bawdy at times in engaging about such topics as sports. Around âmarriedâ couple friends, I am more stoic in engaging in such discussions as childcare and fixing closet doors. Basically, all of these facets of behavior are in fact âme.â Same goes for trading different kinds of markets. In 1999, Iâd trade quite aggressively and almost only from the long side. In 2000, Iâd trade quite aggressively and almost only from the short side. In this current environment, I trade aggressively only when there are pockets of activity else I go with the flow of the day and do nothing when there is nothing to do. In individual stocks, I refuse to trade stocks such as AAPL or GS when the market is quiet because these types of things donât move smoothly when there is no momentum. I refuse to trade things like AIG when there is no news (but will at times trade it in size when it is moving). I focus on relative strength/weakness plays all dayâ¦except when the market is moving straight up or straight down because the extremes on both sides can catch up to the market at random. I aim to make at least 20 cents a share in everything I do except when the market is moving violently in which case my time horizon becomes compressed, my share size per trade goes down, and I seek to make more than 20 cents a share. In short, one has to change with the situation. Just like your own personalities can change as the situation dictates, your situational trading should adapt with changing market conditions as well. Just like you would not speak with your young children the way you would with your best friend, realize you cannot, say, trade C the same in a five cent intra-day range the way that you would with it in a 32 cent intra-day range. When the action in a stock or market changes, you must adapt your trading accordingly else the consequences can be harmful to your financial health. Markets in Asia were generally higher overnight with the Nikkei up about 0.8%. In Europe, the bourses are up around 0.5% on average. Commodities are higher as well with the euro notably strong. This backdrop is setting the stage for another small positive session on Wall Street. The S&P 500 has been higher 10 of the last 11 days (the one day it was down, it fell 0.20). I know if I am playing roulette and the ball comes up red 11 times in a row in essence, I gotta bet red particularly with no real selling pressure evident. So, have a modest long side bias with a focus on fertilizers, big cap techs, and relative strength/weakness plays. Reiterating- If the whole story is not there - If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified. If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified- Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern NSM- decent earnings ARO- good earnings LDK- decent earnings WPI- got FDA OK for new Trelstar formulation in advanced prostate cancer NTRI- closed near a high CLNE- closed near a high after posting good earnings MBLX- closed near a high after posting good earnings TVL- closed near a high after posting good earnings GEOY- closed near a high after Lockheed Martin announced itâll begin to engineer and manufacture GeoEye-2 GYMB- closed near a high after posting great earnings GS- closed on a high SWM- closed on a high YUII- near island reversal after announcing its auditing firm resigned AMZN- closed on a high BUCY- island reversal in closing on a high after a brokerage downgrade PNC- closed on a high RXII- closed near a high TREX- closed near a high RFMD- mentioned on âMad Moneyâ last night POT- raised earnings guidance; watch for MON and IPI to follow AGU- withdrew offer to buy CF; TRA on upside as well CTRN- decent earnings HANS- announced $200 million repurchase program Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern ZUMZ- poor earnings ERH- closed near a low WG- closed near a low after posting earnings AIG- reversed in closing near a low SMTX- island reversal in closing near a low after posting earnings PLL- terrible earnings PSUN- poor earnings SWHC- poor earnings HRBN- closed near a low in a 2nd day of reversal following reporting earnings on Wednesday BF/B- mentioned in âSell Blockâ segment of âMad Moneyâ last night CF- AGU terminated offer to buy the company Earnings: FRI MAR 12 BEFORE ANN ARNA Good luck today. Epiphany Trading, LLC www.epiphanytrading.com Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist Brendan P. Byrne- President Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
MON. MAR. 15- Deficit and Budget Worries A friend of mine sent me a fascinating article recently from www.zerohedge.com with the tag headline âAs Budget Deficit Hits Record High, Interest on US Public Debit Hits Record Low.â Usually, such âscareâ articles donât have a lot of merit, but this one holds a lot of water. Iâll give a few highlights. The February budget deficit was $220.9 billion with $107.5 billion coming in and outlays of $328.4 billion going out. However, in a rather fascinating development, the interest on said debt was a relatively small $16.9 billion because as TreasuryDirect notes, the interest rate on public debt hit an-all time low of 2.55%. I mean, think about that- an increasing supply of debt is resulting in declining interest rates with bid to cover ratios at Treasury auctions at all-time highs! This is totally out of whack with regard to normal market action in which the more you borrow and the riskier the debt, the higher the interest rate you pay. Thus, the obvious question to ask, posits the author of the piece is: âWhen will rates start to rise and what will happen?â As recently as the last quarter of 2007, the interest rate on marketable debt was 5%. Well, the total debt is supposed to hit just over $14 trillion within the year as this was the target for the new debt ceiling by Congress not long ago. The marketable debt would be about $10 trillion. Thus, a rise from 2.5% to 5% would mean thereâd be an additional $250 billion of additional debt each year. Thus, âwhenâ is the true issue as it is apparent from studying this analysis why the Fed is campaigning to keep rates low- itâs not the worry over popping an excess liquidity bubble per se as much as it has to do with hoping rates donât go to, say, 10% at which point the interest on the debt alone would be $1 trillion annually! Thus, while admittedly the excess liquidity can be an issue obviously, the real issue which is very much controllable is the fact that the ink continues to flow from DC. For day traders, quite admittedly, this is not a problem in the immediate-term. Very few people pay attention to the debt/deficit figures and that is not likely to change any time soon. People expect the numbers to be bad so they largely ignore them as do the markets. But, this is a burgeoning problem- certainly one that could affect all of us over time- and one that will eventually affect the markets with the advent of any headline such as the story from China over the weekend concerning its currency which kept futures under pressure the entire night. Markets in Asia were mixed overnight with Tokyo flat but Hong Kong down 0.6%. In Europe, prices are marginally lower. The dollar is steady overall, but the pound is notably weak. Gold is up slightly with oil down slightly. Futures are down modestly. The main trigger is some talk out of China that the Chinese Finance Ministry feels that the yuan does not need to appreciate against the dollar so worries over U.S.-Sino relations are present anew. But really- itâs still quiet and likely to remain so. Notable, however, is that big cap tech and financials are lower so look for a modest downside bias on continued low volume. Focus on some of the biotechs in the news, the aforementioned techs and financials, and relative strength/weakness plays. Reiterating- If the whole story is not there - If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified. If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified- Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern ATPG- closed near a high after posting great earnings SHO- mentioned on âMad Moneyâ on Friday night GHL- had a strange move on the close upon going into the S&P 400; traded higher after-hours as well CBEH- closed higher after posting good earnings ULTA- closed higher after posting good earnings IPCI- closed near a high after it noted NVS, CELG, and ELN have settled their patent suits with IPCI over a generic version of the Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder drug Focalin XR ZQK- closed near a high after posting good earnings AMLN, ALKS, LLY- received complete response letter from FDA for Exenatide in which no requests were made for new pre-clinical trials Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern ATV- closed near a low after posting poor earnings BWEN- closed near a low after posting poor earnings CAGC- share offering GOOG- there are reports out there that GOOG is going to have to leave China; could be good for BIDU though BSX- rumors according to Bernstein that BSX has suspended sales of all of implantable cardioverter defibrillators Earnings: MON MAR 15 BEFORE BPZ JST MON MAR 15 AFTER ATHN SQNM Good luck today. Epiphany Trading, LLC www.epiphanytrading.com Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist Brendan P. Byrne- President Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
For those of you who love campy movies, "The Chase" is one of the campiest. It starred Charlie Sheen and Kristy Swanson and I shall quote the great Roger Ebert's review of it rather than trying to better the beloved movie critic: "" 'The Chase,' a movie named with unerring accuracy, takes place mostly in a car on a California expressway, where love blooms during a high-speed police pursuit. Once you grasp that premise, you know where the movie's going and more or less everything that is going to happen in it." Sheen kidnapped Swanson at a convenience store, they fall in love while racing towards the Mexican border and while I won't ruin the ending, let's just say reality was a trait left out of the flick. Now, in trading, a win is a win is a win. But there is such a thing as a bad win in an individual trade. Such an example occurred on the chatroom a week ago. Somebody called out ROVI after it had rallied 40 cents in minutes out of a tight range with no liquidity and no news in a neutral market. Unlike about the previous 11 set-ups in the same circumstances on that session which all would have resulted in losses, this one happened to work as ROVI popped a little more. The person who called it out obnoxiously asked the general populace if weâd seen the move (he of course did not do the same for the 11 previous calls he made that day with the same type set-up which proved to be wrong). I was and remain incredulous at his bravado. But the point here is that there is a reason there are certain rules to trading (as was shown once again as he happened to be right the 12th timeâ¦.but wrong the previous 11 times). One of my personal major rules is that if a stock has ran a lot or sold off a lot- particularly for no particular reason and I have no idea what is going on- I always assume it is merely order flow or a news event I am not aware of and I stay far away from the stock- either way. In short, I don't chase it. So, as long as the markets remain in a low volume and low movement environment, be aware that this type of âchaseâ is extraordinarily dangerous and being right once does not make up for the 11 times youâll be badly wrong. Markets in Asia were modestly lower overnight with Tokyo and Hong Kong down 0.3% each. In Europe, prices rebounded on the heels of Wall Streetâs late afternoon rally with the bourses up about 0.5% on average. The commodities and currencies markets are quiet. The news backdrop is fairly positive with rumors of a quiet deal being made among the EU finance ministers not to let the Greek economy fail should that nationâs austerity measures falter. With a Fed meeting today, itâs going to likely remain very quiet through 2:15PM ET. Assuming nothing major comes out of the Fed, itâll remain quiet overall but with a bit more activity. Look for the modest upside bias to stick throughout the session barring something unforeseen from the Fed. Reiterating- If the whole story is not there - If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified. If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified- Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern CXG- closed near a high after rumors came out that it will be bought out by CNX STJ- closed near a high after BSX announced itâd halt the sale of implantable cardioverter defibrillators AMLN, ALKS- closed near highs after receiving a positive complete response letter for Exenatide from the FDA WPI- received FDA approval for generic Cardizem LA ATHN- indicated internal accounting review is now complete MCHP- boosted earnings guidance ICGN- reported positive results for ICA-105665 in patients with photosensitive epilepsy SINO- closed near a high LTD- announced special dividend and stock buyback BLTI- announced FDA 510k) clearance of iLase personal laser for dental market DVN, MRX- featured on âMad Moneyâ last night Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern GKK- closed near a low after issuing terrible earnings CNX- closed near a low after being rumored to buy out CXG MDVN- poor earnings and cannot measure operating expenses for foreseeable future MOV- earnings warning HQS- earnings warning SQNM- poor earnings and negative conference call AMSC- closed at a new trend low IOC- Antelope-2 well will need to be re-drilled CFSG- poor earnings DSW- poor earnings Earnings: TUES MAR 16 BEFORE CFSG DSW FDS TUES MAR 16 AFTER DFS FMCN KONG Good luck today. Epiphany Trading, LLC www.epiphanytrading.com Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist Brendan P. Byrne- President Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner