Epiphany! (Laughing)

Discussion in 'Trading' started by mgabriel01, Nov 24, 2007.

  1. OK --- so 100 pages into the book and the answer to the 'time horizon' question occurs to me

    The relevant patterns and trends are visible on 'many' time horizons

    you can see them sometimes over a few days
    or a few weeks
    or a few months
    or a few years

    the pattern is the same
    regardless of the units of time

    this is good
    this is very very interesting, grasshopper
  2. GaryN


    yeah but..............they do not work the same on all time frames, at least in my short career. The shorter the time frame the less reliable the pattern, imho.
  3. Are you referring to Mandelbrot's book?
  4. LoL, well yes and EUREKA too. What are you reading?
  5. Im referring to Shabackers book
    And my reading of it leads me to the same conclusion so far

    the shorter the time line - the less convincing the strength of the pattern

    I've been looking at H&S tops --- and I believe one can identify smaller H&S tops on shorter timelines within the larger H&S top on the longer timeline

    what shabacker refers to as 'patterns within a pattern'
  6. And yes, I'm clearly new at this --- so thanks for your collective kindness in offering your insights

    I had quite honestly been puzzling over the time horizon question despite several knowledgable people here mentioning to me that this was the way it operated

    we can be 'told' but until we 'understand' we haven't really listened

  7. Yes, it's good to realize that and see it live(when others don't).

    I don't know of the book but what he refers to is like nested chart patterns.

  8. Seeing it is very gratifying --- now understanding it well enough to take some action on it well..... hopefully I will make progress on that in the next year or so

    and yes, nested chart patterns sounds conceptually the same.

    Speaking as an old code hacker - nested patterns appear in all walks of life, dont they?
  9. I believe they do.
  10. I don't think that's something mandelbrot would say.

    "patterns are the fool's gold of the financial markets... They are the inevitable consequence of the human need to find patterns in the patternless."

    He would say markets have self-similar fractals, very different than identical patterns. The difference is as big as comparing a deterministic system to a chaotic one.

    The key to unglue yourself from these beliefs, is to try to find a way that they wouldn't work. For instance, if I say I found the holy grail pattern, and it consists of an up-down--up-long down pattern, I challenge you to find a way for this not to work. Show me any chart and I'll find a way to fit that pattern on to it (I may have to modify the count to sub patterns to make it work, but by golly I'll get it to work because that's what I believe).
    #10     Nov 24, 2007