I like your trade it is right in line with my output I have on XLF it sure looks like it could swing negative next week.
I like the MSFT long I think you could be on the wrong side of M but hope it works out for you. For sectors here is what I have right now top to bottom: TLT LQD SPY XLY BKLN JNK XRT QQQ XLU GDXJ XLI XLV XLP IYR VNQ XLK GDX HYG IWM XLE OIH XLB XLF AMLP IYZ XME KRE XOP
Its safe to say that the momentum is shifting to short yen and long USD, so I am changing my positions tonight long USD against: CAD, NZD, AUD. I was off work today and got short EUR/USD early in the day, holding that. I definitely misread the currencies last week. I've realized I have a good set of tool as far as quantitative analysis now, but I need to up my fundamental understanding so I renewed my subscription to the economist and am going to study bond and currency market fundamentals for the near future. SLV went the wrong way today lol, but I'll give it until Wed and take my loss.
No changes to my output or positions today. I'm doing some major reorganization and refocus right now. I tend to go on tangents and get too ambitious when working on anything I am really into. I've been expanding my analysis to include over 1500 symbols. I realized it is silly. It has been taking 15 minutes to download data everyday, and 10 minutes to run my code. I have a very demanding job and I frequently travel to 3rd world countries and I'll be attempting to do this on some crappy 3rd world 2g/3g network through my phone. So...I'm paring the list down to the 15 forex crosses I'm trading, 5y/10y/30y, ES/NQ/YM, and gold/silver. These are all things that I am actively trading now or intend to trade in the near future. I'm cleaning up my code and data, and will work to streamline the analysis of these. I'm also going to work on some more code to provide something of a profile for each product in terms of typical volatility, in a lot more detail than I have right now. So basically I am just narrowing my focus with the intent to really get good at a few things instead of being mediocre at a bunch, which is generally a good idea in any walk of life IMO.
I am an amateur as well working a full time job. I do similar. I limit to usd, yen , euro currency etfs and futures . The 2 and 10 yr treasuries (see the present flattener underway) futures and etfs. Gold etfs. Selling volatility , XIV, the instrument of the decade IMO. SPY and QQQ. Finally emerging market etfs such as EEM( heavily China weighted) with an eye to Brazil etf as well. My belief is that focus on several as opposed to hundreds won't prevent me from knowing something on the periphery, such as my losing recent trade in short financials, will still be apparent from following core positions. Things like steel and coal are examples of corners to look in when things are happening with currencies, China or something else you follow. But then, funny, a simple price indicator i follow is still king as all the above rarely lines up and works. Cant find it now but there is a current thread where the OP is following/trading a lot of assets at a level that I cant quite follow. He has been pinged by a few of the pros here as well. Interesting.
Did my EOD trading (actually only my entries are usually EOD) at midday, took a small loss on MSFT calls (think tec. Will rally but I was 4 DTE) , holding M puts in the money till tomorrow prob (3 DTE) added APA long put. Figured maybe catch tail of this energy melt down, closed below pivot with a target lower. I think you guys are smart to try and condense the universe you look at.
Sold to close M and APA puts at profit. Only 2 DTE on the M, APA down 4%, put up 100 %, figure ring the register. But this is where the gamma kicks in (my original 50 delta is now at 80) to swing for the fences. Boy, whole energy complex (MLPs included) looks bad.
I closed EUR/USD with a profit and USD/JPY long with a small loss. I'm seeing bullish continuation for USD so keeping the USD exposure vs CAD, NZD, and AUD. I'm seeing JPY strength so I'm adding some long Yen vs AUD and NZD tonight. I loled today when I realized I made a silly mistake with my SLV position. My core position this week is long USD and it has been working well, but I took a SLV/USD position where half the trade is the opposite of my model. And my model is showing commodity currencies bearish... Rookie mistake and a great lesson...I'm new to this type of analysis and in the past I just traded equities long/short for the most part along with physical gold trading, never really cared about currencies. I know I still have a lot to learn about these kind of big picture relationships.
Equities, I hate to say this but I think the short term top could be in. Long term who knows...but I would look to any nearterm rally as a pullback in a bear move rather than a push to a new high. A safer trade could be long YM short ES than an outright short. I have had 5 and 10 yr weak for days now but 30y strong as can be, and it is following through. I'm studying my bond book in detail right now and when I feel I have some level of competence I will begin with some spread trades when I get obvious signals like that. Silver is bearish all day long, gold is more mixed, but I think dollar is strong so I'm going to hold off on metals trades until I see a new signal where the USD and metal are in agreement. I like the new setup. It took all of 2 minutes to download data and run the code. I'm trying to come up with a systematic approach to my daily study. Right now I'm starting with currency futures to get the big picture and then I go to the crosses to explore specific positions. It worked well when I got my long USD bias. My cross analysis kept me out of the GBP which really helped performance. Honestly it gets kind of confusing though with futures and so many crosses.
So this is a little outside my normal trades, but it looks like a great opportunity and I happen to be up early today. Adding short NQ here at 5787.