So it maybe clicked finally Just wanted to double ckeck with yall When looking for setups i want confirmation such as the begining of an up trend before i enter And set stop loss right below in case it is just a small retracement or bull trap aon the way down? But im still a bit confused at which point exactly the buy entry should be? Like how far does it need to move in the uptrend for it to be worthy of my majestic entry execution? And when selling i want to wait for the aecond candle to not break out above the last or sell on the first red candle at the top? Or wait for trend reversal confirmation like what? I donno that part.
First off maybe you might clarify your thinking at as to long entry set-ups. Nobody can reliably pick the beginning of an uptrend. But everyone can reliably pick the beginning of the continuation of an uptrend - this is well known from at least a century ago as the basic advice to "Buy the pull-backs". That said, there's a range of tactics for selecting a suitable long entry order price such as - order set on the close of a lower range bar in an uptrend at its high triggered by the first bar to breach the high order set slightly above the high order set a multiple (or fraction) of ATR above the high order set at e.g. 0.5 x the bar range above the high order set at a fixed amount of say 20 pips above the high Which method you select depends partly on personal traits. You might be happier with earlier and lower entries at the expense of more numerous failures. Or you might want to vary the entry price selection according to the various TA features seen in the set-up. You might even want to wait for the trigger bar to close before making a decision, or even for the succeeding bar to print. No single tactic is universally right or wrong.
%% WE CAN clear up some of our confusion today\NO such thing as an ''exact buy point'' [ONLY in hindsight.] You want me to be polite or tell you the truth?? Bottom pickers will be cotton pickers. Forget about bull traps, unless some one cant read a 200 day moving average. SH is in a good uptrend strangely its above 200dma. SPY is in a good downtrend below 200dma. My comments apply only to ETFS + stock related ETFs. Another good way to lose money\ keep buying +selling longs in a bear trend ; even though planned buys every month for 40 years can make you a milionaire. You post is dated APR 29\ care to guess which one is doing better as of APR 29, SH or SPY?? Care to guess which one ;SH or SPY has done better year to date??
The thing here is that had you become a millionaire after 40 years of dollar cost averaging in Jan of this year you'd now have only 830k. Gotta have a method of protecting your capital.
%% OK; good thing i took money out in DEC to buy an auto. By the way ,dd/closer to $900 ,000\if one sold on close below 200day moving average on SPY More agressive,+ more money in your example/ is sell any time frame dip below 200dma
But But But That's not DCAing for 40 years. Thats exercising some risk control that I think is the way to go. Yay Turtle man you knew it all along. you just have trouble expressing yourself LOL Ya gotta try to make your posts more understandable. People don't know what your trying to say. (Less%% and ) Give normal punctuation a try.
I like to think of strategy building as choosing trade-offs. If you try to catch trends early, you have to accept more false signals. If you try to catch trends when you are more confident, you end up with smaller gains. If you use too many indicators or rules to pinpoint the best entry and exits, you are trend fitting. If you use too few indicators or rules, your strategy becomes less precise and less profitable. If you trade short timeframes, you have to deal with more noise. Trade longer timeframes, you get less trades, and annual performance becomes mediocre. The best traders focus more on drawdown management, position sizing, diversification across markets and strategies, rather than fine tuning entries and exits.
Do shorter timeframes experience more duration in 'noise' than longer timeframes, for the same macro duration. In the span of 50 years a daily chart will experience durations of 'noise'. During that 50 years a 1 minute chart will also. When stated in terms of 'seconds in noise', what percent will each timeframe express as 'in noise' or as 'out of noise'.
Perhaps I should try to better define what exactly do I mean by "noise". The easiest and most general way is to compare a weekly chart over 50 years and a 1 min intraday chart over a week. (So that we get a similar number of data points ... 52wk * 50yrs = 2600 versus 60mins * 9hrs * 5days = 2700). If we take the peak and bottom of the 2 charts as the "range", generally you will find that prices fluctuate way more on the 1 min chart, often swinging between extremes of this "range". Furthermore, we can compare 50 weekly charts of 50 commodities, and 50 1min charts of the same 50 commodities. You will notice that the weekly charts are generally similar and more predictable, with regular extended trends that you can attempt to catch. While the 1 min charts may sometimes look completely random, but may also show extended trends too on certain days. Lastly, I personally view "noise" as price that is less meaningful. The majority of market participants observe, and accept the closing price of a stock/commodity at the end of a trading session. If they don't agree with the price, they could have acted on it by buying or selling. But most market participants wouldn't even be looking at intraday charts, let alone know what was the price at 9:22am of a particular trading session. Since intraday prices hold less meaning and are caused by transactions rather than traders deciding what would be a fair price for that stock, prices are less meaningful in my opinion. A trading strategy can be designed to attempt to catch trends driven by real economic forces. But designing a strategy to predict human behaviour and sentiment reliably I think is way more difficult, if possible at all.