Entries only – thank you.

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by Gary Fox, Sep 22, 2007.

  1. Gary Fox

    Gary Fox

    Hello hughb,

    Thanks very much for posting.

    I am only interested in stocks via end of day data.

    Regarding "I buy breakouts inside pullbacks" if it's not too proprietary, with NTRI I see a nice pullback and a 3 bar pivot low of $4.85 on 3/11/05. Then a reversal back up with two good volume days on the 16th and 17th. In this particular case, was that the breakout for you? If so, was the BO thru a moving average or trendline - or something else? (Or, perhpas it's the BO with good volume on 4/7/05.)

    With the PTC example, the 28th BO was nice with good volume. Is that the BO in this one?

    I appreciate the "20% increase in 3 day volume twice in a row" comments. I have not considered that. I'm thinking that (AVGV3.1 > AVGV3.2 * 1.2) AND (AVGV3 > AVGV3.1 * 1.2) would get me there. I'll take a look. (I'm at work now. Budget/crunch time.)

    Thank you sir. Appreciate your input. As you know, there are not too many swing and position traders in these parts. Nice to hear from one.

    Take care,

    Gary


     
    #11     Dec 19, 2007
  2. hughb

    hughb

    Gary, here's the notes I made on NTRI, (the ticker was NSI and it traded on the Amex back when I was trading it).

    I had just noticed that it made a new high, it did not appear in any of my scans on this date, however on the very NEXT day it did appear in my scan and I got a little excited about it.

    On 2/25/05 I made my first buy. Notice how it had dipped from the 2/10 high. On 2/24/05 I was convinced it was breaking out from that dip, so I bought the next day.

    On 2/28 I was stopped out for a loss. I don't remember where my stop was, but it was obviously too tight. And so I bought back into it again on 3/8/05. Now you will notice that it took a dip in the days right after this second buy, but I held on this time.

    If kept making buys into it on the little dips it made up until 06/05/2005 when I was surprised to see that it appeared in my scan again. I wrote this:
    On 6/17/2005 I made this note
    One of the worst decisions of my life. It hadn't moved much for the last 9 or 10 days and I became impatient. I still think about the nice condo and car I could have bought with the profits if I had held on.
     
    #12     Dec 19, 2007
  3. As much as I agree with Mark B.

    I would like to warn that MB doesn't mean "cycle" in the sense of esoteric trading terms like Gann or Elliott.

    MB, along with others like MJ or AC, is a master of technical "noise reduction" to expose a particular edge.
     
    #13     Dec 19, 2007
  4. Gary Fox

    Gary Fox

    Hello TSGannGalt,

    I appreciate that.

    As I had no experience with cycles, I did a brief review of some of the noted cycle folks - and really didn't think I'd find much of an edge.

    Now, your comment puts it in another light. Can you expand on "noise reduction" a bit? Also, as my ignorance is boundless, who are MJ or AC?

    TIA.

    Gary

     
    #14     Dec 19, 2007
  5. Gary Fox

    Gary Fox

    Merry Christmas everyone.

    I have this sort of cryptic quote that I want to backtest as part of a setup. I would appreciate any input.

    This person is an end of day swing trader. Holds are form 1 to multiple days. He buys weakness within strength and sells strength within weakness (meaning he uses a basic pullback method within an established trend). His entry is either a buy or sell stop. Volume requirement is high.

    He said this about his setup:

    “My entries are always the same, it's my exits that vary. My basic thesis is this: the best trades are the ones that are strong from the start- a powerful move right out of the gate increases the odds that you have a longer term winner on your hands.

    So I use a simple volatility based filter in determining what to keep and what to kick out.”

    If this were an individual end of day bar, do you suppose he’s describing a bar that does not go much lower than the open and has a close very near the high?

    Or, perhaps it opens above the close of the previous day; or even the high of the previous day (a gap)? What da ya think?

    Regarding the volatility – what is your best guess here. Today’s ATR is > ATR14? ATR20? ATR148*2? Etc. Or, a percent measure above the previous day’s close? high? Etc.

    Hey – it’s Christmas. I’m bored waiting for my in-laws to get here with their darling little children.

    GF
     
    #15     Dec 25, 2007