Enter retest on Triangle trendline or Previous Lows/highs?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by iamnewuser911, Sep 26, 2016.

  1. Retest or not ...
    First ... Does a retest improve your P(G) ?
    Maybe a "Retest" doesn't improve the odds of your setup.

    If it really does improve the odds ...
    Is it worth the potential decrease in the Reward to Risk ?
    Usually the fact to enter late (?) decrease your expected payoff.

    Say 1. without retest P(G) = 0.5, Risk = 1, Reward = 2
    Say 2. with a retest P(G) = 0.66, Risk = 2, Reward = 2

    Which one is better ?

    E(1) = 0.5, its Advantage = 0.17 & Average Return 8.5%*
    E(2) = 0.66, its Advantage = 0.16 & Average Return 5.3%*

    Both are tradable but 1. is a bit better.

    I can't find the numbers for you ...
    Backtest either on Demo or on Simulator.

    * Assuming Full Kelly (Advantage)
     
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2016
  2. CyJackX

    CyJackX

    There is always a "move" somewhere.
    If a proper retest is a filter that increases your odds, you should stick to it.

    You'd probably regret the bad trades more than the trades you missed.
     
  3. Handle123

    Handle123

    I was taught differently, but are their rules on drawing Triangles? I was taught it is alternating pivots and more like a Greater Than sign image, and each different pattern have different reactions or entries and risk.
     
  4. You should discover the 'rule' by doing your own research, not from the opinion of people here or statements from trading books.
     
  5. You're all heart ;-)

    @iamnewuser911 a lot depends on how you manage the outcome rather than the entry. That all looks like a big mess to me anyway, it's not clearly trending or a clear break one way or the other. That's a gambling setup to me. I'd be inclined to trade neither of those but if it broke the last low on that chart after the trendline break then I might think about it.