Energy Markets Commentary - Nov. 20, 2007

Discussion in 'Energy Futures' started by Ransquawk, Nov 20, 2007.

  1. Ransquawk

    Ransquawk ET Sponsor

    Energy futures are trading mostly higher this morning on further weakness in the US dollar, comments by Energy Secretary Bodman that OECD crude oil stocks were about 100 million barrels below the five year average and a disruption at Shell’s 155K b/d Scotford oil sands unit yesterday.

    The US Dollar Index fell 0.7% in European trade to a new record low of 75.348, while the euro rose to a new all-time high against the dollar to $147.97. Weighing on the dollar today are further rumours of an emergency Fed meeting and comments from an official in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), reported by the newspaper Al-Riyadh, that Saudi Arabia may have started studying a revaluation of the riyal. The same official said that Gulf Arab currencies appear to be below their appropriate value against the dollar and that Qatar and the UAE are keen to revalue their currencies. On Sunday the Secretary General of the GCC said that member states would discuss a proposal to revalue their currencies in Doha, Qatar on Dec. 3-4. Over the last week the US Dollar Index has fallen 0.7% while WTI crude futures have gained 6.0% to $95.66.

    Energy Secretary, Bodman, said today, according to Reuters, that that the discussion among OPEC members about pricing their oil based on a basket of currencies was not giving the U.S. government cause for concern. He reiterated that OPEC should increase output at its next meeting in Abu Dhabi in December. Bodman also said that OECD crude oil inventories were about 100 million barrels below the five-year average and “This is the number the market may be looking at.”

    In other energy news, Shell yesterday reported a fire at its 155K b/d Scotford oil sands unit in Canada. The company said today that the fire has been contained and that it voluntarily shut in production operations in the area. A company spokesperson said it was too early to judge the impact on production.

    Regarding OPEC, the Indonesian oil minister, Purnomo, said today that his country would be happy if OPEC increases output, according to Dow Jones. He added that Indonesia wants to see oil between $60 and $65 a barrel so that the country does not need to cover additional and higher fuel subsidies.

    On the weather front, Accuweather wrote today that warmer air will briefly return to the East before a cold and wet Thanksgiving Day on Thursday. Weather Derivatives predicted yesterday that temperatures nationwide would be 0.5 degrees above normal over the next 7 days, 0.7 degrees above normal in the North-east and 0.3 degrees below normal in the North-central. Over the next 6-10 days the forecaster predicted temperatures nationwide would be 2.8 degrees below normal, 3.8 degrees below normal in the North-east and 5.4 degrees below normal in the North-central.

    Tomorrow the EIA releases its weekly petroleum data. According to a major wire survey, crude inventories are expected at +1.0M barrels, gasoline inventories at +1.0M barrels and distillate inventories at -600K barrels. The refinery utilization rate is seen rising 0.5%.

    At 12:15 p.m. BST WTI crude futures are up $1.00 at $95.63. RBOB gasoline futures are rising 2.88 cents to 241.04 and heating oil futures are climbing 2.82 cents to 263.25. Natural gas futures are down $0.21 at $7.58.

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