Sep 9: A solid session to close the week in a bull note A week ago we was asking ourselves if the markets had done a bottom near those 1200 or 38.3 zone and well, we have to say that this markets has found the way to disregard of everything and just go and go... Today NYSE Compx, SP and Nasdaq run again into new highs of this move without any major scare for bull people. After the Thursday roll-over we saw the markets goes to mentioned resistance levels, with the SP holding near the 1242-5 area now key support for the coming week. The Qâs wasnât such different holding near the 39.70 level (high 39.69 ) and end close to that level. The laggard of the session was the Russell2000, witch is very slow in his run up against the Nyse Composite, the $rut spent all the session consolidating the morning move of 3 points against a NYSE composite running all day long in all-time highs. I remark that because a lot of times this indexes trades like twins. Anyway, for the next week we should check âhighsâ in some indexes like the SP and thatâs its going to be the key , I mean, the ability of that index to cross highs or not. The trend remain in good shape with the index denying any bear movement each time looks threatened, a major cross the next week will leave the way open for a run to 1280/90 but we have to go step by step and now focus if the market its going to cross or what. Nasdaq are the slowest index on this run far away from 40.15 highs this year, anyway, we have a lot of resistance level to contain any bull run, 39.70 / 40.15 and 40.50-65 as the main resistance levels. 39.20 and 39 are the cited support levels. Speaking about the intraday I have to say that we could watch some correction from here, just because we are in the upper side of the channel , anyway, at this point its hard to short, any intraday short should be stopped out above 39.72-3 The SP, intraday, could be closing 5-waves near the resistance zone on 1242-5, so, its hard to think in a huge cross right now, I prefer to figure out a benchmark spending the next week in a 1230-1245/6 range with a little range inside on the 1235-42 area. 1230-2 and 1216-7 are still main support zones. Diego M Rolando, Sep-9-2005 at the close, roc@roclerman.com
Its a bear market you know; DAL,NWAC sector Actually looking at most every thing technical, one of the most profitable; Old patridge nickname old turkey, ''its a bull market you know '' Even QQQQ resistance of $40.8, 40.68 , 40.56 may, may not mean much in a bull market. Tek stock stocks are usually a good buy in autumn; because they tend to go lo then also.
Diego, Enjoyed your post, another EW guy is always good. I have entertained that count myself: coming off the April lows, and we are in a 5th wave now. Definitely viable. However, based upon my market momentum analysis, the peak occurred way back in mid June. This usually indicates the end of wave 3. Thus, I've been counting the early August top as the end of the impulse wave. Thus, the decline into the 8/26 lows (wave A), and this advance (wave B). Which is nearly an exact 61.8% retracement on the COMPX. I'm glad you are following the S&P, I don't like that index. I follow mostly the COMPX and INDU, and just keep an eye of the INX to see if it's confirming trends or not. Will be updating my blog soon, you can check it out. If you have a site or blog, would be interested, please forward link. Tony http://spaces.msn.com/members/caldaroEW/
Tony, I think that you hit the nail right on the head! I am in the "B-Wave" camp as well with a "C" to follow shortly. Keep up the good work!
Hi! Checked out your chart. Exactly the impulse wave count I have from the April lows. I follow the COMPX in great detail, and my count on the decline was a 5 x 5 into the 8/26 lows. Different index, different count, same meaning. Thus far, I see a near perfect abc into todays highs, in fact very perfect. Will be updating my blog shortly, I'll detail it there. Do you have a site or blog I can peruse Tony http://spaces.msn.com/members/caldaroEW/
Hi Tony, No, I do not have any sort of commentary that I put out to the masses. In fact, I tend to view Elite Trader and this specific Trading Forum as a contrary indicator. I look forward to reading your weekend blog, Sir!
It's always interesting to see other folks EW work. I'm not sure I share the conviction that the move up from the late August lows is an impulse one, though. I've got it as a wave [ii], with the move down from August as a wave . Stepping back, the move down in August and back up in the first week of September looks especially V-shaped to me--and not necessarily sustainable. My 20-day SMA of volume is declining over the course of the rally (the peak was the afternoon of September 1st in the NYSE). I'd also like to see the MACDH and the stochastic doing something other than make lower highs over the course of the advance. A lot of "big name" traders are breaking their ankles jumping off the bearish bandwagon right now: Marcin and Russell are among the latest. Combine that with the fact that just about everybody and their kid sister thinks that the Fed will stop raising rates (or even lower them) because of a hurricane (with hurricane season barely halfway over) and I can't help but wonder what is fueling this move ... Looking forward to next week, for sure!
Hey Tony, Sure would like too see a really nice EW chart with the wave counts on it with a little EW future predicted moves so I will know what too be looking for???? Thanks in advance for the assistance.... Trendtrader...