Read all my previous posts. I am still long ES @ 2161 and my holding period is up to 2 months. It's called "Swing Trading" or "Trend Following" ok?
ES printed new all time high as I expected. so what's next? price action during 3:30PM - 4PM is important. It will be a tell tale sign from the market.
It's not necessarily about tomorrow's action but more about is today a top or not. If there are big money players who want to exit at this price point, they will sell heavily before the close. when they exit, they don't come back next week or next month. and that sets the new downward market trend if there are enough big money players doing the same thing. so far, I don't think today is the top. more room to go up But I may exit my position at the close.
don't get me wrong. this trend is not done yet. I am exiting only because this position is my second shot riding this trend. My first position was exited due to election night market's curve ball. If I were able to hold onto my original position from ES 2084, then I would definitely hold it until end of the month. but i better not be greedy on second time. 23 points is not that bad.
Let's revisit possible market moving events. 1. Italian referendum(Dec 4th): this could reintroduce EU into center of market's attention 2. Michael Slager trial(cop who shot fleeing black man): usually market doesn't care about riot. but if he is acquitted, things could get real ugly. 3. Fed interest decision(Dec 14th): over 90% chance that fed will raise rate. My gut feeling is that market already priced into this. but last time fed raised interest rate, market showed surprisingly long and severe weakness. Never underestimate Fed's influence. 4. Trump's treasury secretary pick: We all know it will not be Elizabeth Warren. so whoever he chooses, market will likely react favorably. As I am flat now, most disappointing market action will be steady price increase into next Jan. That means no more trading setup for couple of months.