** no change in position ** still long one ES @2191 per 200K I assume ES will print new high given that Nov 30th was not likely a top. I will exit probably around 2210 -2215 area.
ok, NQ is leading and YM is lagging this morning. That's how it should be in a normal uptrend market. if NQ joins the party and reach new high, then where will ES be? NQ's high is 4908 and that is appx 110 points from here($2200) Assuming ES get 80% of the dollar amount of that move, ES will be 2201 + 34 points = 2235 2235 area is another possible target. if not for the FED day next week, I would have considered aiming that price.
I suspect thursday's ECB will be "sell the news" kind of day. Sunday night market spike up was "buy the rumors" kind of action despite italian referendum. Will market drift lower after ECB heading into FED next week? That's my speculation but I wouldn't trade on it.
as of 10:25AM, spy printed 221.88 this morning vs 221.82 on Nov 30th but ES printed same 2213 as Nov 30th high. That's rather large discrepancy. Spy printed 0.06 higher today but not ES. Spy used to be super precise. I guess not anymore.
** position update ** sold one ES @ 2237.50 per 200K Realized P&L= + $2300/ 200K Cumul P&L= + $2250 / 100K (+2.25%) that was beautiful.
Hrmmm. I've briefed through this thread, and I like what eyedy is on about with swings. But, eyedy, there's a couple of things that need mentioning. First is this quote you posted some time ago, re-quoted here... "I know a guy who bought every dip in the stock market last 8 years. He never sold a single share for the 8 years and took all the profit this summer." Well, that just cannot happen in futures. Commodity futures do not keep going up and up and up in value. Companies that produce products, and employ humans to make it so, make more and more profit, thus increasing the value of the company, and it's shares. Oil or gold doesn't do that. And neither does the ES in the short term. You cannot simply go long in the ES every time and expect that in a month it will be above your entry. The second thing I wanted to mention, or at least ask about, is what you have been posting. Others have asked about it as well. "sold one ES @ 2237.50 per 200K" Realized P&L= + $2300/ 200K Cumul P&L= + $2250 / 100K (+2.25%)" What does that mean, really? This is not the first time I have seen this. Is this something to do with "notional value"? What is with the divisor there? I do not understand why people do this. What does that mean?
He bought stocks and ETFs not futures. The point is he was simply lucky yet he made a lot of money because he was investing long term. 200k is an account size. so for example, 400K account, I am selling 2 ES contracts. I just wanted to record my trades and my thought process real time here and hope to achieve 10% return yoy. thanks for reading!
I never thought market would explode to the upside like it did yesterday before the Fed meeting. now that I am flat, time to think about where this uptrend will halt. let's first calculate Brexit rally low to high range. June 27th low = 1972.25 Aug 23rd high = 2184.25 range = 212 ES points Trump low was 2078.75 on Nov 4th. so if the range is similar then high will be around 2078 + 212 = 2290 area. That's 50 points upside from here. of course there is no guarantee the range will be similar. another way to look at it is time limit. Brexit rally took appx 2 months to reach its high. Trump rally's 2 months will be early to mid January. maybe around his inauguration day? I need to be extra careful getting long next January.
I take it you're eliminating the overnight action of the ES on Nov 8 where it hit limit down of 2028.50?