Just wanted to share my trading real time here. trading style: medium term trend following(up to 2-3 months holding period) trading size: up to 2 ES contracts per 100K I only enter/exit position at EOD except when significant market drop(more than 3%) happens before close then I trade accordingly at that time expected return +10% / year also expect maximum draw down of about 10% during one year period. Been quite profitable using this strategy and hoping to share it. Here we go! Position: LONG @ 2084 (DEC ES) entered at eod NOV 3rd
In my experience, a good target for Max DD is a typical good month, not your target year's returns. Good luck....Bob
10% DD is not target but that's what happened past couple of years. of course I would like to lower dd, but I felt this strategy needs this much dd to generate sizable return. anyway, thanks for the reply.
Just my opinion, then you need to tweak your strategy over time to have a higher target return or take steps to reduce the volatility of your returns. 10/10 will tend to not work well over time.
I agree that I need to lower volatility but I haven't figured out a way to lower DD. and that's my main focus these days. still, this strategy has been working great for me.
Oh well, that's easy. Focus on improving (1) the quality of your plays and entries via TA and (2) stop discipline. DD is primarily a function of those two.
well, my intention was to share profitable strategy real time, not asking for trading advice. I won't share my trading decision making mechanism here, but max dd usually happens right before huge reversal in P/L. and what really matters is that I've been quite profitable every year using this strategy.
Not asking for yours and frankly, couldn't care less about it. You said you "need to lower volatility but... haven't figured out a way to lower DD." I suggest where to focus to achieve your objectives.
I don't use TA and I don't use stops. so unfortunately your suggestion has little value to me. anyway thanks for your input.
Anyone who enters a swing trade with a trending market will come into profitability given enough time. Your entries will just determine how much DD you will have to entertain before reaching the magical profit point. Where you get screwed is when the long term trend changes.