So December 2018 and Jan 2019 I was doing well. Then in February, I had the stupid idea that we might be topping and started buying puts. I gave back all of my gains. Stocks that gapped down reverted and headed higher. I thought shorting(indirectly via puts) a downward trending stocks would be a good idea. Nope. Most downtrends were bought and reversed. Wow. Shocked me to the core the strength of this rally. Also made feel stupid of doing countertrending Perhaps it can go 52 weeks straight up. Who knows. Who cares. The point of short-term trading is to follow the patterns and trade accordingly. This is like 9th and 10th week straight of bullishness. It's as though the Fed and Central Banks all over the world will never allow another bear market to happen under their watch. I know this can't be good. But I've given up. It's hurting too much. I still have a small SQQQ, YANG, TVIX position. From now on, stay with the bullish trend until it's otherwise indicated.
The bear market did happen. It happened in Q4. Remember? 20% down is a bear? Too bad it has practically reversed all of it by now. Sux to have missed it. And just like you, I am thinking of the "bullishness" now, again. Unfortunately, I've learned my lesson the had way, and do not see this new "bull" run ending well. Too much, too soon. Just like Q4's bear run. The Trump effect has produced too much uncertainty in my mind. Market action over the quarterly term is so unpredictable now. Who can tell?
Yes, I know we had a fast bear market in Q4 2018. But it seems like CBs worldwide learned this lesson and now preventing another one from every happening again... This is so against the nature and cycles of markets...
people always say 'this time its different'. But its not different - its speculative as always. For my own curiosity I did an underwater peak to valley drawdown graph of the DJIA from its inception in 1921 through yesterday. What you see is that yes, we have been in a very prolonged shallow drawdown era for the past 10 years. But you will see 4 other such streaks historically, some lasting much longer than our current good streak: 2002-2008, 1982-1999 (ignoring the brief 1987 crash), 1942-1966, 1921-1929. What happened after the streaks ended? after the 2008 peak market dropped about 50% after the 1999 peak market dropped about 35% after the 1966 peak market dropped about 45% after the 1929 peak market dropped about 90%
Its no time to be short on individual equities when the major equity indices are in uptrends. No matter what we think, no matter what analysts, our brokers, journalists or even fund managers tell us. For a simple guide, refer to the indices' 50EMA's - all 3 50EMA's of the 3 major US stock indices turned upwards mid-January. And they are still sloping upwards.
I feel your pain. Been there, done that. This is just a reminder to trade what we see, not what we think. And trends persist longer than we think possible. The other thing to consider is you probably had "A" trade set-ups in December and January and those are no longer present. I just have to remind myself to be patient -- there are going to be periods when I need to push it and times when I just need to sit and wait. Not sure that I'll ever perfectly master that but it's something to strive for! Best wishes!
I still have some of my puts. It's a bit of a pyrrhic victory though given the battering I took in Feb. Timing is everything.
%% True. And while i'm not short or long PCG; most all of the trends are still red/down, 50 dma,down 200 dma down+ still down for long time. Even if it has hit a bottom @5.0777,maybe not; hard to argue with a 50 day/200dma down sloping moving average.+ crooked management