a mutual fund who cannot get in and out in day will even consider daily fluctuations as noise. Why because daily fluctuations do not matter. that is the most sensible definition of noise. i, who trades 5 min, will consider 10 second time frame, as nosie. what does not matter to the trader is nosie so it is very subjective
I don't want to get into the details, but the concept and idea is so simple most of you would laugh me out of ET: Trend following, no indicators, just price, and no stops, buy and sell on market price. Buy when it is going up, sell when it is going down. If the market is truly random, I have a 50:50 chance, if it is not, perhaps > 50:50???? One more point, the fact that so far it is positive after 2500 trades, after slippages, indicated there is a small element of non randomness in the market price that paid for the slippages but likely not enough in the long run to be a profitable approach.
Easy for you to say @Sekiyo. In real time when the right side is not there, you know it is not easy to determine if and when those big moves are showing up and if a move comes, to know it will continue vs going back down and wipe out all of the gain and then some. Most of the time we get out too early to preserve the gain and miss the move, or stay way too long and paid the price of a loss instead of a big gain.
At the time frame that scalpers play there is a lot of noise, so a small move up or down might be just because there is an imbalance of orders for a short period of time. Those moves don't trigger a trend. Trend following is mostly achievable at larger time frames where the noise disappears. Daily or Weekly time frames. For scalping intra-day you need something a lot more robust like a market profile indicator or a ladder with VWAP. Sitting orders on Level II and volume per side are your best views to understand market strength, maybe an RSI, but that is a lagging indicator that I don't like much. It is normal that you are getting those results after what you have described, your drivers are random, so are your results then.
I think it would be fair to at least explain what gave you the idea that the method you tried was supposed to produce positive results?
Welcome back, I miss you. Hope you are doing well. I tried to emulate Schwager's Zen and the Art of Trading. If that market wizard could make hundreds of millions for his clients, I am only looking for a free Big Mac a day and should be doable?
you dont need them. they were not there in Livermore's time.in his time there was elliot and gann and where are they now? but price was there.it is still here. higher lows higher highs, breakouts pull backs channels are still here . THESE HAVE ENDURED THE TEST OF DECADES AND CENTURIES.
There is no point in trying to day trade and scalp for ticks. That practice went the way of the dodo in 2023. The market is too volatile. After this election, the Vix will fall back to 12-14, and all will be we well with the world.