End Of A Retail's Day Trading Experiment?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by ironchef, Oct 28, 2024.

  1. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    If you have ChatGPT you can code way more than VBA :D
    But of course it's not straight forward and bugs are always here.

    Whether they are seen or unforeseen ones.
     
    #201     Nov 13, 2024
    HawaiianIceberg likes this.
  2. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    Now I could double down on System 1
    As it seems better than system 2.

    But that would be overfiting the past.

    It’s always best to diversify,
    Market, System, Signals.

    I’ve read that’s what the funds do,
    They don’t trade one system,
    But several versions of it.

    With different parameters.
     
    #202     Nov 13, 2024
  3. ironchef

    ironchef

    In all honesty, I think KISS is best.

    We often overthink the problem and overlook the obvious. :cool:
     
    #203     Nov 13, 2024
    Sekiyo likes this.
  4. Ricky Roma

    Ricky Roma

    If running 2 systems at same time to try and "smooth" equity curve, it might be good to try 2 different systems that profit in the 2 market conditions...ranging and trending? Mind you, they both need to be fairly profitable or they'll just cancel each other out and eat up margin
     
    #204     Nov 14, 2024
    Sekiyo likes this.
  5. ironchef

    ironchef

    Been there done that. Their codes had bugs and since I don't know how to code in that language, they were useless.
     
    #205     Nov 14, 2024
  6. ironchef

    ironchef

    This 99% er finally gets it. Thank you for the coaching.
    @Sekiyo, I did the math (statistics) and experimented with SL, @SteveH's posts were spot on:

    With a given profit target, if I tighten the stop loss, my win rate goes down. If I widen it, the win rate goes up. However, the expected profit goes down on either sides of the 60-70% win rate and 1:1 reward risk ratio.

    Also, the math did verify @volpri's scalping methodology. Though I am only able to get a 60-70% win rate with it.

    Thank you for your help.

    Happy New Year and wish you a very profitable 2025.
     
    #206     Dec 29, 2024
    NoahA and Sekiyo like this.

  7. This channel goes through a lot of technical analysis, some of which are used for scalping.
    While it might seem that the host is joking most of the time, the actual results can give you an idea of what works and what doesn't.

    https://www.youtube.com/@TRADINGRUSH/videos
     
    #207     Dec 29, 2024
    ironchef likes this.
  8. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    I’ve never ran the experiment myself, beside on my own trading, but that’s what I expected.

    2/3 win is the implied percentage of 0.5Reward per unit of risk. Assuming no edge, trend, zero mean.

    I would use the ATR (variance) to define the risk unit.

    If the market is trending, drifting over time, then we can try to capture it through time.

    Else … if the mean is 0, range bound market, then we can bet on mean reversion at extremes.

    Mean / Variance is the cornerstone IMHO.

    Every step is the result of a random, noise component and a drift, mean component.

    Short term trends can appear even if the mean is zero. That’s why context is important.

    Context gives the strategy to adopt (momentum vs mean reversion). The short term gives entry / exit towards larger number expectations.
     
    Last edited: Dec 29, 2024
    #208     Dec 29, 2024
    ironchef likes this.
  9. ironchef

    ironchef

    Thank you sir.

    Happy New Year to you.
     
    #209     Dec 29, 2024
  10. ironchef

    ironchef

    Looked through them. None is applicable.

    I am only interested in trading to get a free Big Mac every day, not to go from $xxx to $xxxM in x months. :p
     
    #210     Dec 29, 2024