Not really. But I "know" the market will make a push to 5810 or more today. At least the probabilities for that are very high. If you're conservative, you've already trailed yourself out on the initial push after momentum stalled and took an early weekend.
There are 1%'ers who try to help the others. Mostly, they don't get through to their thick, negative-minded belief system skulls. Then, there's the 1%'ers who observe this and thank their lucky stars they didn't ever get involved.
You are absolutely right. True, I may not have given them enough time or have not found any good parameters to work with. I don't want to spend a year on each and ended up with nothing after another decade, so, in order to save time have to go with what I have that almost worked for a year and make adjustment there.
I can't trade your way because I don't know how to optimize and predict. On scalping, limiting large loss is key. The devil is in the details but @volpri gave a great hint on how to avoid that and if you look at my statistics, as another posters said, if I could eliminate those 2-4% daily losses, it could work.
There must be more than one way to join the 1% club? Not all of Schwager's market wizards traded the same way?
That's the harsh reality of trading, though. If you don't have a mentor you are likely to spend a few years just finding your way. And after you found something that's promising, you still likely have a ton of work ahead of you with no guarantees at the end of the road. If n00bs really understood that and what they're trying to accomplish, I don't think they would have wasted their time. Enablers are the worst of the worst since they're leading others on towards something they didn't succeed with themselves. There are many of these on ET. If I knew what I now know I would have never wasted my time, money and youth on day trading. Scalping is like picking up pennies in front of a bulldozer. Why not find a big shovel instead? Honestly, nobody knows anything about said users results. He runs a high win rate system and averages down as a habit as his entries lack accuracy. Frankly, I'd be surprised if he's making serious money on trading, but I could be wrong? I'm not looking to shame anyone, but you may know who I refer to who was winning daily over a very long period. However, what was obvious to a trained eye was that he took massive risks doing so and often sat through deep drawdowns huge multiples of his average green day just to finish the day slightly green. By the law of large numbers such systems will one day blow up. And that happened. Is it not better to focus on capturing some medium/large winners while minimizing losses? I think that's the meaning of the timeless trading adage: "Cut your losses; ride your winners."
Excellent question. Because I am trying to make money out of a mostly random process that is governed by statistics. Some of you will say it is Alchemy but there may be logics behind it? In options, which is your expertise, option prices behavior and stock price behavior sometimes diverge and I can spot and exploit that divergence to profit. I think your term is D1 and vol? I am trying to see if there is such in day trading, D1 and noise? Take care.
Avoiding the weakness in the return distro is impossible. It's likely cyclical. Gotta take the good with the bad. Second, even the best suffer from either inability to sit on their hands or analysis paralysis.
Well I have tried to backtest this. If first 30min is up then buy and hold for 1hour. If first 30min is down the sell and hold for 1hour. I think there is no edge in what I've said. Tried the 5 and 15min but it's worse. Less data / trade also. Here we hold the whole day based on the first 30min