Encysive trading at the bottom...not for much longer

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by jbird, Feb 20, 2007.

  1. jbird

    jbird

    PUNK $12 target
    small excerpt from an analyst research report today....

    • We continue to strongly believe the market potential for Thelin in Europe is not reflected in the Company’s current market cap of only $234 million. Based on
    conservative projections, we believe Thelin could be a $180 million and a $257 million product in Europe by 2009 and 2010, respectively. We estimate if a Company were to purchase this franchise from ENCY, the European market potential of $180 million to $257 million for Thelin represents roughly a $380 million to $715 million, or $6.10 to $11.45 per share, of present value for ENCY. We arrive at
    our Thelin present value (PV) estimate for Europe using a 3-4x multiple of our 2009 or 2010 revenue projections and apply a 20% discount rate for two or three periods.
    Additionally, the market is currently awarding no value at all to Thelin in the US market. Based on the strength of the product’s therapeutic profile we believe this is a mistake. See Table 6 for our market model.

    PV of European market
    PV at 3x Rev Multiple $381,482,293
    PV at 4x Rev Multiple $508,643,057
    PV Per Share $6.10 3x Rev Multiple
    PV Per Share $8.14 4x Rev Multiple
    Based on 2009 $183MM ROW Thelin Revenue Estimate
    and a 20% Discount Rate


    PV of European market
    PV at 3x Rev Multiple $536,517,426
    PV at 4x Rev Multiple $715,356,568
    PV Per Share $8.58 3x Rev Multiple
    PV Per Share $11.45 4x Rev Multiple
    Based on 2010 $257MM ROW Thelin Revenue Estimate
    and a 20% Discount Rate
    • We continue to maintain our BUY rating on ENCY.
     
  2. jbird

    jbird