I believe you meant to say the Clinton "era" and the reason the economy expanded so rapidly during the 90's was because that was the beginning of an easy credit era. Now you are seeing the end of it and the beginning of a very tight credit era. If Obama is the Savior you suggest he is then you are forgetting where 2/3rds of the driving force of the American economy comes from -- the consumer. Government driven economies are never successful long-term. If we shift from a 2/3rds consumer driven economy to a 1/3rd we are in trouble. It appears that is going to be the case. Indeed, we may rally for a while and your buying the dips strategy could very well work but I wouldn't do that with a long-term horizon in mind. Without easy credit the US economy is going to be, just another economy. You are witnessing The Rise and Fall of the Great Amerian Empire, with a front row seat for the Fall.
Just like 6 month ago, government can under reported its unemployed number, at current time, at the time of forced liquidations, it can also over report its unemployment number. Hourly earning is still raising, wage is still up yoy. IMO, the inflation is just around the corner. Anyway, i see bargains in XLF.
The number is awful. People have shitloads of leverage and are losing there jobs at the sametime. This is not a bullish scenario. People need cash badly!
employment in the public sector is up... that is not good for the economy at all. I believe that Obama's idea of more jobs is more public sector jobs, Zimbabwe here we come..... And I would not bank on the world economy just yet.. check out the shipping numbers since June, down over 99%, yikes...... I would not say the world economy has slowed, more like it's stopping! The banks don't trust each other, that's the bottom line here, and that is messing up the economy so the banks can't "bank on" the consumers either... maybe the private sector can cook up a new banking system to circumvent the current one, maybe supplant it permanently, the world internet bank or something........ and The Most Merciful Lord Obama is going to fix that?? LOL, he will pump money into the "poor" which is a euphamism for black voters... http://www.dryships.com/index.cfm?get=report
Yep, I am old and feeble suffering from dementia and have never seen a bear market or a bear market rally, or really anything. I am surprised, as you are, that I am still alive. I wonder how I did it? Anyway, see you on the trading floor as I try my best to survive, struggling against mean, bad traders. Woe is me, woe is me ..
I agree that the easy money days are over, but this rally is one to make some really decent money. I am leveraging and looking for a 50% bounce over the next year or two. For most, who are looking to make 10% over the next 20 years, they will be disappointed. But getting in now, and enjoying the pop, is one way to take advantage of the government spending spree which is necessary to beat deflation. After that, I figure the market will hobble along for several years until debt is repaid, balance sheets are repaired, and consumers get use to living on less. It is actually quite healthy and I think we will be a better nation for it. I may trade the range or I may sit it out. It depends. Thanks for the advice. We are in agreement.
He is not in agreement with you, he is talking about a collapse of an empire. While you think everything is fine and dandy.
The banks don't trust each other, that's the bottom line here, and that is messing up the economy so the banks can't "bank on" the consumers either... maybe the private sector can cook up a new banking system to circumvent the current one, maybe supplant it permanently, the world internet bank or something........ ----------------------------------------------------------- I agree. But how can private money cook up a new banking system when you have guys like Buffett using his private money to buy equities, or Gates type foundations giving money away? Something is not right here.