Emotional Catalysts and Market Predictability

Discussion in 'Trading' started by RangeTrader, Jul 15, 2012.

  1. If you want to think logically about what news is catalyzing market movement through these cycles things get pretty interesting… The jobs report in both of these last months acted as a “current catalyst”. It catalyzed market movement within the cycle at the moment of the news release…

    However, the market is most predictable and easiest to daytrade when moving because of a future or past catalyst. The two rallies out of that divergent bottom last month were catalyzed by the upcoming Bernanke speech, and then the upcoming Fed Announcement.

    Then recently the market was moving because of past catalysts. There was a follow-through of a few days after the Merkel announcement, and then a follow-through after this months jobs report.

    Currently the market is being catalyzed by the upcoming Bernanke testimonies this week. A lot of catalysts for market action are market neutral… They don’t do anything but accelerate the movement of the cycle/trend in question. Some serve to accelerate/decelerate momentum in a cycle.

    I can summarize this in the way an average Joe can understand… If there is big news coming up in a few days and the market starts trending… The trend can move FAST… Bears get very scared of the upcoming news and bulls jump in like crazy… Well… It’s kind of funny… A future Bernanke speech or FOMC/Fed meeting is not just a neutral catalyst. It’s actually slightly a positive catalyst. People have memories tied to fed announcements. Their memories in recent years of these events have all been positive. QE2, QE3, Twist, etc… Fed announcements have made the bulls money and crushed the bears. Bears fear these events and bulls get euphoric before them. Their memories of EU news events have mostly been negative in recent years.

    Think about it and it all makes perfect sense. If there is something approaching in the future that has caused peoples money to go negative in the past, it brings on fear. If there is something approaching in the future that has made them money in the past… It brings euphoria.

    The bottom line is you can just forget about 90% of news and just follow the technicals... There are only a few things that really matter. The Fed, the EU, and the monthly jobs report. Which... I really don't get why it catalyzed market action anymore really. It doesn't matter in the least for the financial economy. The real economy and the financial/debt/fx/etc markets are more like cousins than family.
  2. Argent


    You dickhead. If you are so fucking smart, make some real time calls here. I am sick to puking death of your plattitudinous bilge. You are a walking talking random buzzphrase generator. I would put you on ignore, but when I need to take a shit you make me laugh so hard I squirt.
  3. I do make real time calls dipsh*t...

    "07-12-12 08:22 AM PST


    5th count... Rally from tomorrow into next week.

    Target: 1355-1365"


    Only make trading calls/positions with my virtual account because revealing my real account position levels would increase the emotion of those positions. It's kind of funny... It's 100% harder to hold virtual positions that are publicly known than real positions that nobody knows about.

    "06-25-12 12:21 PM

    SPY Aug 12 131.00 call purchased. $3.96 / Market

    Target price area > 1340.

    Time for trade to perform > Wednesday afternoon.

    Trade Conviction > Low Conviction. Lower odds long trade than I would ever take with real $$... But, it's the only thing I see this week so far."

    Althought that market call was a few points under target... It didn't matter as it was the ending time for the trade. It's more important to know when the target "times" are for trades than thinking about exact price levels IMO.

    Anyway... If you don't enjoy me giving my thoughts away free without any charge... Don't read my threads. ;)

    Most people don't understand that there is no need to predict the market... Just jump in when opportunity presents itself.

  4. Argent


    Do you know what we say about people like you where I am from? "Truly stupid people don't know that they are." Why do you post worn out old advice from the 50's? Last book you read? Why do you post at all? Your "insights" are totally nonspecific. I have dealt with adjectival clowns like you all my life. You never use a number, only an adjective. Never a testable hypothesis, only a random conjecture. You are so dumb you don't even know not to mudwrestle with a pig.
  5. Ummm... I think you need to go see a shrink. Your talking in jibberish.

    I think your a mentally blocked retard if you can't understand what this says...
    "07-12-12 08:22 AM PST


    5th count... Rally from tomorrow into next week.

    Target: 1355-1365"

    LoL... Go get a shrink retard.

  6. What I said in the topic post isn't new in the least to anyone.

    Just go read Trimtabs investment research.

    The start/end dates of the multi-month rally cycles in this market match fed easing program start dates with precise correlation. The 2003-2007 bull market was driven by the fed past decision of extremely low interest rates. Then there was the greenspan driven markets... Same thing really. Past repeats over and over.

    Most people know this stuff nowadays. I'm not saying anything new.

    Just re-iterating a fact to you idiots that every single hedge fund manager on wall street knows by heart...

    I get a good laugh out of how unreceptive you people are to the truth of how the market works!!! :D :D :D Maybe if I tell you the truth enough times you will finally crack and go insane. Hahahaha...

    Just go read the CNBC headlines... They know whats up! "Market Outlook: Bernanke May Set Tone for Rest of Summer " What nobody knows is... Will the EU Black Swan the market tone spontaneously? :eek: :eek: :eek: