You just provided a plausible answer to how a party can manipulate the market. Get the fed to hint about future interest rates and the market moves.
Typically market cycles end with when the markets keep climbing that wall of worry as the fed keeps raising rates, they both keep moving higher until the markets climax then the bad news begins to flow from the higher borrowing cost and companies began to warn. The dollar is a real worry along with gold IMO.
I'm looking at the bonds too. It made a new low again. One another thing that I just noticed is that when the ATR today > 2* Avg. ATR 5 days and Volume today > 2* Avg. Vol. 5 days, the market should move in that particular direction. If it cannot do that it is a sign of exhusation. We saw that take place twice in the last month. The risk/reward is too good to pass this opportunity, so I'm going against the long-term trend.
For tomorrow I will look to fade today's high. Sell-limit 2@ 1321.50 Stop: 1323.50 for all 4 contracts. The two positions are day-trading positions. Monday will probably be a low-volatility day. I will wait till Wednesday to get back in the market. If we close higher after Tuesday, we'll likely see 1400 in few months. Total Risk: $750 if stopped out.
Yes, but on 2 contracts only. I never got a chance to put in the other two since when the market opened it was already past my sell point. Need to rethink the whole strategy. I have been killed by trying to pick the top. From now on I'll just follow the trend ie. 200 day MA. As long as the price is above it, I'll look to buy on pullbacks. No shorting till the price goes below the 200 dma and is unable to rally above it. I'm glad to see that you're doing pretty good. Keep it up!!!
Instead of completely scrapping your strategy, IMHO, you should just focus on solutions for its weaknesses. For example I think you should develop a trend following method similar to "bolters" that will provide you with a bias based on the open or the first 30 to 60 minutes of the trading day. Additionally it should be objective/flexible so that your bias will change if certain price levels are breached. Just my 2 cents.
Here's a thread started by Buy1Sell2 on his ES Journal. There are about 245+ pages preceding this url, but I wanted to bring this to your attention because they start discussing Clayburg's Directional Day Filter ("DDF") starting here: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=64965&perpage=6&pagenumber=247 It's worth a look to anyone who's interested. Later, Jimmy