Eminitrader's Journal

Discussion in 'Journals' started by eminitrader007, Apr 29, 2006.

  1. This is going to be my non-daytrading journal. I had started a Daytrading journal before and although the results were good when I backtested it, it did not work as well in real-time trading. I'm not sure if this will work now but it had worked for me in the past.

    Any questions/comments/suggestations/criticisms are welcome as long as it is trading related. I will try to answer any questions that anyone has. Since this is non-daytrading journal, I won't be posting daily.

    Similar to my previous journal, all entries, exits and targets will be mentioned the night before the market opens.

    Actual method to follow.
  2. Here are the indicators.

    I use:

    Daily charts (O-H-L-C),
    Bollinger Bands (13, 1),
    Money Flow Index (13),
    Volume and
    My Value-Range from the day-trading journal.

    It is a divergence method between the daily price and the MFI.
    When the prices are trading near/above the upper band and MFI is unable to make a high, I'll look for an opportunity to short. Similarly, when the prices are near/below the lower bands and the MFI is unable to make a new low, I'll look to go long.

    Position size and Money Management: I will look to trade 2-4 contracts depending on my portfolio size and the stops.
  3. Here is my plan for Monday.

    The price is currently near the upper band but MFI has beeen in a downtrend since the week of March 20th.

    In the last two weeks we witnessed two large up- Volume days on 4/18 and 4/27, but the market has been unable to follow through to the upside. This looks like a climax run to me and we are close to the end of the run. So basically now I will look to short here.

    Friday's close and high were higher than Thursday's close and high but the volume was much lower. I will look to fade any rally on Monday.

    May 1st.

    Sell-limit: 1319
    Stop: 1326
    1st target: 1300
    2nd Target: 1285
  4. Looks like ES closed at 1319 but they marked as 1316. So for tomorrow
    Sell-limit: 1323 instead of 1319.

    Stop: 1327.
  5. The Bulls looked tired the last few weeks and the Bears got the catalyst today. Although I missed the sell-limit price today by .50 pts. I still have some put options. I think this is it.

    Next Stop: 1285.
  6. Sell-limit: 1318
    Stop: 1323.5
  7. Short 2 contracts.
  8. Staying short here. Expecting more weakness tomorrow.

    Will take parrtial profits @ 1301.
  9. I think your making a mistake trying to pick a top. The trend is up but quite extended. Your better bet would be IMO to wait for corrections and try and get long. The Republicans are not going to let this market fall to far, that is the only thing they have going for them this fall, is the can pound their chest and say look at the market folks.
  10. On a risk/reward basis this trade makes sense to me. I'm risking about 11 pts. on 2 contracts for a total of $550. This market does not have to necessarily top here, just a pull-back to 1285 will be fine.

    Although I agree that there is nothing good going for the Republican these days, it is hard to imagine a group of people to be able to manipulate the market esp. something like the S&P till the election time.

    The bulls are exhausted. We might see a relief rally if the Fed hints that they are done raising rates or pausing for a while but that will be short lived too. If they do not hint on a pause, this baby is going to fall fast and fall hard.
    #10     May 3, 2006