I strongly agree on the efficiency aspect. With the deep liquidity now, you get a double edged sword: -- when the market 'sticks' at a level (oscillating within a 2-3 tick range), you have more opportunity to enter/exit at 'your' price, but... -- the increased amount of orders means that there is more competition at 'your' price. Which to me means that I find myself having to do more wait, wait, wait, wait, then strike.
Maybe I was not clear, but that was part of the point I was trying to make. That most of the time this is a very effecient market, so you sit out a whole lot waiting for a time when you may have an edge. But then, as soon as you see it, you have to strike or it wont be around. Brandon
andy4: There are many good posts on this thread, read and reread them. Some advice from a newbie to a newbie: !) try paper trading. Be disciplined about it. Don't mentally paper trade! Write down the price that you bought, but only when that is the current price. Don't pretend, retrospectively, that you bought at such and such a price before. That is useless! Same thing for the selling, shorting, etc. 2) Set up your tendlines, BBands, multiple time frames for the NDX not the NQ. The afterhours and premarket trading noise with the NQ destroys all the charting landscapes that exist on the actual index. Watch the index! However, you might want to keep a 5 min NQ candlestick open as well for the intraday action. Two levels of BBands on that should help you spot momentum breakouts (try 1 and 2 SD). The Directional Movement Oscillator is my fav momentum indicator. 3) Until you understand on a daily basis why the NDX is moving the way it is moving, you don't stand a chance with the NQs. I am not too good at this myself, but I can say this: Technical Analysis helps greatly! Martin Pring's new "Technical Analysis Explained" might be a good place to start. Get the fourth edition that just came out. Get John Bollinger's book too. 4) Listen to Vulture, he seems to know what he is talking about. I have found that the days I do well are the days I "flow" with the market. Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote a good book on this phenomenon called "Flow : The Psychology of Optimal Experience". It has nothing to do with trading per se, but at the same time I feel it has everything to do with it. Good luck.
The increase in liquidity in the E-mini's does not mean that the market becomes more effecient. There is no correlation between my results and the increased liquidity. I don't make more or less points. I just get better fill's on my contracts, things only get better. The average size at the best bid or offer is now around 100 contracts for the S&P mini's. On the very short time frame the market is highly uneffecient. The results in my trading sustain this.
!) try paper trading. Be disciplined about it. Don't mentally paper trade! Write down the price that you bought, but only when that is the current price. Don't pretend, retrospectively, that you bought at such and such a price before. That is useless! Same thing for the selling, shorting, etc. * If your results paper trading put you off real trading - it has probably done its job, and its time to dip your feet right in - if paper trading shows how good you are at trading - be real careful when you start the real thing! 2) Set up your tendlines, BBands, multiple time frames for the NDX not the NQ. The afterhours and premarket trading noise with the NQ destroys all the charting landscapes that exist on the actual index. Watch the index! However, you might want to keep a 5 min NQ candlestick open as well for the intraday action. Two levels of BBands on that should help you spot momentum breakouts (try 1 and 2 SD). The Directional Movement Oscillator is my fav momentum indicator. * If you are trading the NQ - set up for the NQ - but be aware the same setups operate on the NDX - and remember that no indicator is going to make you money - just remember markets go up and they go down 3) Until you understand on a daily basis why the NDX is moving the way it is moving, you don't stand a chance with the NQs. I am not too good at this myself, but I can say this: Technical Analysis helps greatly! Martin Pring's new "Technical Analysis Explained" might be a good place to start. Get the fourth edition that just came out. Get John Bollinger's book too. * the NDX and the NQ move for the same reason - people trying to make money and trying not to lose money - and no one knows - your job is to be right more than you are wrong - you dont have to be right every time 4) Listen to Vulture, he seems to know what he is talking about. I have found that the days I do well are the days I "flow" with the market. Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote a good book on this phenomenon called "Flow : The Psychology of Optimal Experience". It has nothing to do with trading per se, but at the same time I feel it has everything to do with it. * when we do well - we all feel we are in the flow - the reality is that you make your money by protecting it when you feel you are not in the flow
Sabena: You'll rephrase your efficiency statement when you work your way into 50 lots! The thicker e-mini market will be the cat's pajamas for good e-mini traders like STEVET. He will gradually come to learn that he can flip 25 lots as easy as a 1 lot in that market. He will come to learn that if he hits that 100 lot bid with a 50, chances are he will take it sellers. He will come to learn that he can make serious dough without making someone else rich with commissions. Serious Advice: Don't fade size in a thick futures market. I've seen Refco, Merril, and Morgan do 1,000 CARS in the pit around a particular price range. Professionals use this market to buy or sell ALOT of exposure. Get in and out of the market like a mechanic. 3 scratches, 2 losers, and 5 winners is a great day. Pick your spots wisely - this isn't 2,000 shares of IBM you're nursing along. The idea is alot of scratches, a few small losses, and a few rather nice winners. Don't sit with a trade if other traders aren't going along with you. A sound sizing plan is the most important thing you can develop.