Emini divergence journal

I've been trading this method as well. Similar track record for September, a couple more points though, perhaps because I've been staring at my screens all day Only a couple of losses this month. I'm very eager to read about no_pm's other method though, as this one seems to be very valid, but it has days on end with no trades.

But I don't show that divergence. Are you running this on the mini or the full S&P? Your chart doesn't indicate it, or at least I didn't see it.... and admittedly I just came down with a major cold today. I'll post a chart if you'd like to compare. I'm tracking the big contract and trading the mini.

Also, I don't see that as a valid exit according to no_pm's rules. It didn't touch the lower Keltner. Did you come up with other entry and/or exit rules? Or (no offense) is that more of a "wishful thinking" exit?

Perhaps we should take this to PMs or email, as I doubt that we should populate no_pm's thread with our speculations. Magna, any opinion on this please?

Mark

 

Magna,

Thanks for lending some clarity. I was concerned that we may be introducing variations without even realizing it, and thus muddying the waters.

I'll get some charts together tomorrow. It's Nyquil time

Mark

 

To all:
I wonder if anyone has taken the time to go back through the charts month by month. Because this setup does not happen every day, it seems to me important to know how many trades one can expect seasonally (in 6 months, in a year for instance). Also would be important to know how many of the setups are losers, and if there is a seasonal pattern to those trades. Most of the posts seem to be traders who simply decided to try it. I guess that's your perogative, but in my opinion knowing a little more about the dispersion of trades you would have some idea of when to load the boat and when to step aside. Based on what I read of no pm's posts, I get the idea that he did not do this analysis either. That may be why he had the losing month that he mentioned in one of his posts. Just some food for thought. Steve46

 

Sorry I haven't given you guys much of an update. I didn't really think my health should be a big concern. I went to the docs last Friday and I still have mono. The doctor was concerned because my spleen was enlarged. He wanted to put me in the hospital in case it ruptured. I figured if he got me there he'd operate so I said no. I've been bedridden until today. I went back for another checkup and the swelling in my spleen is almost gone. I think I'm finally on the road to recovery. I feel pretty good as long as I don't do much physically. Luckily trading is more emotional (for me) than physical. I won't be playing the guitar anytime soon so I've got to get back in the trading game to make some money.

I'm planning on starting the realtime posts again tomorrow. I don't think I'll need to stop again. My next doctors checkup is in 3 weeks. I'll scan the first few days of this month and post any trades found.

See you in the am.

 

ADX is above 30. No divergence so far. The huge gap open is from news. I probably shouldn't do a trade. If I get a clear divergence and it doesn't look like a trend day, then I'll take a trade.

 

Lescor,

I agree with MarkB - I don't see a divergence on the Chaikin on either the SP or the ES on that entry you mentioned yesterday. Also, FWIW, I don't have access to the markets every day, but I saw a total of 5 opportunities in September using this system, for a total profit of 0 points ES. They do seem to be few and far between right now.

Jason

 

Doesn't look like a trend day so any signals that come up will be taken. I'll check 10/1 and 10/2 for trades while I'm waiting.

 

Found one trade on 10/1. To be honest I probably wouldn't have taken it since it looked like a clear trend day at the time of the trade. I don't want to cherry pick the method so I'll include it in the results anyway. I'm starting a new running total from here so we'll see how it does going forward.

1. ADX crosses above 30 - 12:55 bar.
2. Divergence was in place immediately. 1:00 bar sets new high and confirms the divergence. 1:00 bar was also last high bar.
3. Keltner width is 5.85 so a stop of 2 pts would be used.
4. Sell near open of 1:10 bar. Entry would be around 1009.75. Stop loss at 1011.75.
5. Trade stopped out on 2:05 bar at 1011.75.

Entry short 1009.75
Exit short 1011.75

Profit(loss) -2.00
Risk 2.00

Risk reward this trade -1.00

Cumm. trades since 10/1

# wins 0
# loss 1

Profit of winners 0
Loss of losers -2.0

 

Now I'm confused. I thought that the whole divergence had to occur while the ADX is over 30.