no_PM, As they say in Japan, "Otsukaresama deshita", which is ritualistic saying to someone who has completed a job. It literally means: "You must be tired". No doubt appropriate for this trade. Richard
Very frustrating trade. Entry looked good. Trade lost momentum just before the profit target and sat in a range the rest of the day. I hate these trades because they're stressful. At this point it's just a mental cost of doing business. 1. ADX crossed above 30 on the 1040 bar. It dipped below it but I figured it would have to rise above it again if a new high was hit. 2. Divergence was clear in the SP market. Divergence started before ADX hit 30 and was confirmed on the 1105 bar. The upward momentum stopped on the 1115 bar. Also ADX rose back above 30 so everything was setup for the short entry. 3. 1120 was the first bar to not set a new high so a short was done near the open of the 1125 bar. SP open was 990.60. ES short entry was 990.50. Keltner range was 5.23 so the stop loss was set to 1.75 points. The stop was entered at 992.25. The market dropped sharply and I thought the trade might be over in 20-30 min. The trade stopped just short of the profit target and stayed in a range the rest of the day. 4. Since neither stop or target was hit, the trade was exited on the last minute of the day. Exit was at 988.00. Entry short 990.50 Exit short 988.00 Profit(loss) + 2.50 Risk 1.75 Risk/reward this trade about 1.4 I'm not including yesterdays 6.5 pt. win in the summary because I didn't trade it in realtime although some people made money on it. Cumm. trades since 8/1 # wins 8 # loss 1 Profit of winners +41.25 Loss of losers -3.0
Based on my 5 min ES chart you could not take this short sooner than aroun 12:10, yet you are talking about much earlier times. Are you sure you are correct? Well, I guess your time zone is different than mine (EST), so that's OK. Sorry...
It's not a real big deal. It just happens sometimes. I felt sorry for anyone following this trade with me. It really tests your discipline. I put in limit orders when I want to get up and do something else for awhile. Most of the time I was watching tv. I just hate it when the market plays with me. I've tried lots of other exit methods. I haven't been able to get the same results with any trailing stop. Maybe someday I'll have a better exit method. This is all I've got for now that works well. The good news was my system was stable all day.
If I were you I wouldn't change a thing. All I needed to do was look at your profit/loss number again today to remind me of what's what. When I can do that good and show you something new, like you've been doing for us, then my comments are worth more than a hill of beans regards, jd
I HAVE found pretty convincingly, that you cannot use the ES as your source for the TI information. It has to be the SP contract. I've tried many different incarnations of the settings and different indicators, and with the rare exception of the CCI looking at the ES, the Chaikin and the ES will miss about 50% of no-pm's DVs. Serves me right for trying to get around something someone has already proved to work. But not having the SP currently, I at least wanted to try to make it work. It rarely does. Since prices are pretty much the same, I'm betting it's the volume numbers that make the difference, since Chaikin looks at price and volume. I'm thinking volume between the two exchanges could be quite different. Anyone know if I'm even close to a reason for the difference? jd