Has anyone tried no pm 's method with success? The market has been choppy intraday recently, with no follow through so it should have worked well. I am a bit sceptical about the validity and viability of the method though. I don't think divergences work especially in real time, in hindsight a good signal is obvious but in real time I think there are many false signals. The CMF oscillator is based on volume and as far as I know doesn't take into account changes from close to close only close compared to open and close of the same bar . As far as volume intraday or otherwise IMO you can't trust it, except for volume spikes on possible bottom and tops at extremes and even that it often indicates a temporary reversal. So the success of the method would lie in the exit strategy/ large stops used and the trend fading approach which is better suited to the current market. No PM if you are making money with it that's great! can you post execution reports?
I've been trading the overall divergence method for about 2 years. I've made some adjustments just about every month since then.
The easiest way to avoid a big losing day is to stop taking trades if the first trade is a loser and you suspect it may be a trend day. A second method is to wait for the ADX to drop below 30 and cross above it again before starting the setup process. A third method is to wait for the trend to be broken by touching the other side of the Keltner Channel before looking for another trade. There may be others but these are the 3 that I've tried with success.
Yes hindsight is 20/20. Come back in a couple of months and check the results. By then it should be pretty clear this is a viable method.
It will be interesting to see how you determine that it's time for an adjustment, as well as your approach to calculating any necessary changes.
I tinker all the time. The kinds of changes are things like moving the stop to 1 tic above the highest high after two bars in my favor (on short trades), exiting the position when the middle keltner channel is crossed initially and re-entering (if there is a retest), exiting the position if it gets near the other side of the keltner channel with a high tick reading or the volume on the 5 min. bar looks like it's very high, moving stops to breakeven after a successful retest and cross of the middle keltner channel, and trying different mthods of trailing stops. I've also tried building a indicator to warn me of possible trend days (for instance my indicator is warning of a possible trend day). As with any method, you can drive yourself crazy trying all kinds of ideas.
Just curious, but what motivated you to share such a simple yet effective method with people? I dont know about how much truth there is in such statements as "methods that get used too much become obsolete" but that is something that has kept me from sharing any profitable methods, esp ones that are easy too follow. ( or maybe im just a c*nt )
I just got tired of the recent negativity in the threads on ET. I was also bored looking at journals where the methods weren't revealed and the results weren't tracked past a day. Also, I didn't see much posted in divergence trading other than "wait for a divergence before taking a signal types of general statements". I don't think most people will trade someone else's method (no matter what the realtime results are). I also don't worry about saturation as I can adapt to whatever the market does.
This mornings move looks very strong. Since I have a trend day warning for today, I'm going to wait past the original signal to enter and look to enter on the retest. ADX just went past 30 and there is divergence.