Interesting spreadsheet... I cannot however believe that the markets are random. If they were then it would be impossible to make any money in the long run. Profits would just occur by chance and would be corrected in the long term. It would be meaningless to try to trade and consistenly make money. In order for the markets to be random, the people playing the market would have to be random. Everyone in the market has a strategy of some sort. The market behavior is the combination of everyone's strategies and the sum of non-randem strategies is a non-random market. Each person's strategy may be driven be a number of factors including fear and greed.
<i>You can debate about random walk to the end of YingYang, but that doesn't help anything. </i> It certainly has soothing effects on bruised ego's. Brandon
Trading is not like any other business that I know of. More hard work doesn't necessarily equal more profits. Running a business doesn't require the same amount of emotional understanding and control that trading requires. Learning emotional control and self-mastery is much more difficult (and rewarding) than learning analytical concepts or doing mental or physical labor. It sounds like your analytical mind is coming up with rationalizations to explain away your poor performance. In the end you must do what you feel is right but if you really believe the last 2 sentences in your quote above then it sounds like you have already made up your mind about whether to continue trading or not. Whether you believe those sentences above or not, that will be the truth for you.
I like your fly metaphor. I would be grateful if you could email me the next time you spot an inordinately large and pungent pile of dung! In the meantime I think I will go and buy a restaurant or something with my trading capital (well the majority of it anyway - just in case that dungheap turns up!). Good luck all!
"This is why it is an "artform". It seems to be all random. Those that are ahead are just very lucky so far IMHO. " HAHAHAHA damn I have been lucky EVERY month for the last 3 1/2 years, and yearly for about 6 before that..... PEACE and good trading, Commisso
Good luck funster. Ultimatly, the choice to call it quits can be a hard one, but one many people wish they had made earlier. Best regards. Brandon
chance favors the prepared mind.. try or cry buddy.. maybe trading just doesnt fit your temperament.. -qwik
the seriousness of ones intent can be measured by the casuality with which one dismisses the idea of failure.. I'm sorry that some of the concepts and ideas posted here have not managed to help..but best of luck to you Funster in any endevour, if luck is your chosen vehicle to success.. mbt3.. "Trading is not like any other business that I know of. More hard work doesn't necessarily equal more profits. Running a business doesn't require the same amount of emotional understanding and control that trading requires. Learning emotional control and self-mastery is much more difficult (and rewarding) than learning analytical concepts or doing mental or physical labor" tripack..your journey seems to have been worth taking too.. Best regards..mbt3
I dont think its so random any more. The same things keep happening over and over again. The longer I trade, the better I get at spotting them. Its just that there are so many things to take into account at the decision point that it takes a long time to make it automatic. Its pure skill in my opinion.