eMesa system

Discussion in 'Strategy Development' started by swtrader, Jun 3, 2003.

  1. Got an e-mail from e-signal for emesa (so much for the e-everything era dieing)

    looks like it has potential, but could be snake oil too

    anyone else look at it, or care to read the link below and post their thoughts?

    any thoughts on mesa systems (add on stuff for e-signal) stuff in general?



    http://www.mesa-systems.com/emesa.htm
     
  2. The guy behind MESA has been around a long time and has several systems that were highly rated by FuturesTruth, for what it's worth. He's written numerous articles in TASC. Basically he uses signal processing algorithms to extract cyclic components from prices. I've never used any of his stuff and have no idea if it works.
     
  3. swtrader:
    I looked into the Mesa Software programs and as much as was possible, into the concept behind "MESA". To put this in perspective, I am a mechanical engineer, and so my background is strong math, but not especially strong with maximum entropy spectral analysis. I found that the concept has validity, and the tests seem to show reasonable profitability, but when you try to trade it the drawdown will put you under pressure at times. The developer (John Ehlers) says from the start that you need to be adequately capitalized and disciplined (meaning you take every trade and "live through" the drawdowns). In my opinion, the guy is honest and seems to represent the program accurately. Based on what I have learned to date, I would rather take the time to develop my own system. Hope this helps. Steve46
     
  4. bhale

    bhale

    I purchased his tradestation indicators, and for what I can see or tell or backtest, they are absolutely worthless
     
  5. Maybe you just don't know how to use or apply the indicators?? Like said before - You might have to sit through drawdowns etc. and you should be able to understand what the indicators do.
    An indicator doesn't make for a whole trading system. Indicators are extremely variable, but most work somehow. If they don't, then it's mostly because the user is either impatient or incompetent...

    There are several factors that determine the profitability of a trading system itself, such as the underlying market, the underlying security (stock/future - what are you trading?)

    I think it's a bit immature to immediately discredit / declare as 'worthless' any indicator or trading system out there.
    Most trading systems out there are only out there because they have proven profitable to somebody who most probably put a lot of time into developing it. Evaluating your attitude I could assume that John Ehlers (developer of MESA) knows a little bit more about trading, indicators and systems than you do.
    Chances are, he knows more than most ppl around here do.
    So this instantly defies and ridicules your attitude.

    This is like going to a "Linkin Park" concert and shouting (during a break) at the band that their music is worthless.
    Chances are the music is not "worthless" to them - Neither in emotional, practical or dollar terms.
    Chances are also that you'll have your head done in.


    Since I know that a 12-year-old (me, anyway) can develop a (profitable) trading system, the point is not the system but mainly the trader. You would be AMAZED at how much (unintended) influence every individual traders' psychology has on a trading system. While some may gloriously succeed with a system, others may bitterly fail, because of lack of discipline to sit through the trades generated etc...


    ~Scientist :cool:
     
  6. My tip to everybody who uses trading systems (I've written a few myself):

    If the system proves to work - Follow it RELIGIOUSLY!

    -Put on every trade generated
    -Sit through every trade entered

    If you don't do exactly this, you will defy the point of any trading system. The system proved profitable in the past because the trades were exactly executed and measured (by the computer) as generated, NOT because the smart-assed / undisciplined trader threw in a few discretionary's or skipped a few entries/exits!

    If you think you're smarter than the author (?) - Modify the system / program your own to your specific needs. But make sure you understand what all the factors do before you touch it or start with something simpler. Always remember - as soon as you trade a system you don't fully grasp, you're essentially trading a "grey box"...

    However, once the system is written/modified and fully back&fwd tested, follow the trades. Don't test different parameters while you're trading -

    That's a foolish play! :D


    Good Luck,
    ~Scientist
     
  7. bhale

    bhale

    Scientist

    I am basing my opinion on reading the book several times, forking over the money to purchase the indicators, losing money by trading the system(s). Is that enough for you.

    You seem to think I didn't spend 'enough time'. I assure you I did plus more. I'd be willing to bet John Ehlers makes more money on books, website, seminars, etc than he does on his trading his own indicators and/or systems.
     
  8. So I guess you automatically assume that the eMESA system for the emini's has no profitable returns?

    :D

    ~Scientist
     
  9. bhale

    bhale

    It's your money, pal.
     
  10. It's my money, bhale.
     
    #10     Jun 4, 2003