Emerging-Market Stocks Have Worst Week in Almost Six Months

Discussion in 'Wall St. News' started by S2007S, Jan 5, 2007.

  1. S2007S


    Is this just the beginning of the decline or is this a buying opportunity. I remember back in mid 2006 when most of these emerging market stocks fell over 25%, that was a buying opportunity, buying here may be a bit risky. Once I see EEM trading in the mid 80's is when I would start to add somewhat of a position to this group. Right now I would hold off.

    Emerging-Market Stocks Have Worst Week in Almost Six Months

    By Igor Muller

    Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market stocks had their worst week in almost six months as speculation that global economic growth will slow drove metal prices down. Poland's KGHM Polska Miedz SA and China's Jiangxi Copper Co. paced the drop.

    The Morgan Stanley Capital International Emerging Markets Index, which tracks 25 developing markets, has fallen 2.1 percent this week, the most since the week ended July 14 and its first loss in 15 weeks. The measure jumped 29 percent last year.

    ``A slowing U.S. housing market, and indications that the Federal Reserve will cut rates later rather than sooner, came as a negative surprise to a market that had a very strong run,'' said Dimitri Chatzoudis, who manages about $1 billion in emerging-market shares at ABN Amro Holding NV in Amsterdam. ``Commodity stocks are the most exposed to signs of an economic slowdown.''

    This week's minutes from the Fed's Dec. 12 meeting said the ``predominant concern'' is rising prices and the risk of a slowdown is more than anticipated, dimming prospects for imminent interest-rate cuts.

    Fewer Americans also signed contracts to buy previously owned homes in November. An index of signed purchase agreements fell 0.5 percent, a third consecutive decline, to 107 from 107.5 in October, the National Association of Realtors said yesterday. A report this week on U.S. service industries reinforced concern that growth is slowing in the world's largest economy.

    KGHM, which mines more copper in Europe than any competitor, slid 10 percent this week, even after rebounding today to 80.05 zloty. Jiangxi Copper, China's largest producer of the metal, lost 1.3 percent to HK$7.61 today, for a weekly loss of 3.8 percent.

    Copper Slides

    Copper prices in New York were poised for the biggest weekly drop in five months amid reduced demand for the metal used in pipes and wires, and rising inventories.

    Global stockpiles are at the highest level since June 2004. The U.S. economy grew at the slowest pace of 2006 in the third quarter, led by a decline in homebuilding. Builders are the biggest consumers of copper, which has tumbled 36 percent since reaching a high in May.

    Copper futures for March delivery were at $2.60 a pound on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. A close at that price would mark a weekly loss of 9.4 percent, the most since July 21.

    Crude oil was also poised for its steepest weekly decline in New York since April 2005, as warm U.S. weather reduced heating demand. Crude oil for February delivery last traded at $55.22 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil has fallen 9.6 percent this week.


    PetroChina Co., the nation's largest oil producer, today fell 1.3 percent to HK$10.46, for a 5.1 percent weekly slide. Mol Nyrt., Hungary's largest oil company, slid 2.5 percent to 20,275 forint, extending its weekly retreat to 6.1 percent.

    PTT Pcl, Thailand's biggest energy company, and its PTT Exploration & Production Pcl unit also dropped today. PTT lost 4 percent to 192 baht. PTT Exploration, the nation's second- largest natural gas producer, fell 1.6 percent to 93 baht. Shares of the two companies accounted for about 20 percent of the decline in the benchmark SET Index, which sank 3.1 percent.
  2. My opinion:

    China - definate buying opportunity coming up in the short term. Favorable political environment for foreign investment (which explained the parabolic move last week) still exists & it is business as usual with the trade deficit, so what's not to love? Scale in FXI between 93 - 100; stop out below 90.

    India - a bit scary here; lots of downside unless you are long from a lot lower (I am). If sensex makes new highs then would trade long with a tight stop. If not and goes below 12700, would not get in until we see much much lower. I don't expect new highs with last night's price action.

    Latin america - toppy. With china available, would rather trade that. ILF etf looks like the sensex for that matter.

    Eastern Europe and Russia - probably the better long term structural play, but hard to tell how it will perform near term.