Discussion in 'Stocks' started by my2cents, May 21, 2007.

  1. Prop-

    I find it interesting that you edited your original post on ELN.

    From: Looks as though ELN is about to break its 52 week high.
    To: Any takes if ELN makes a new 52 week high today or this week?

    Some uncertainty on your part? Maybe you are just trying to generate some feedback. Well, if that was your strategy then consider yourself successful.

    Nice run on ELN with the news that they are going (maybe prematurely since the results of the phase II clinicals will not be released until next year) Phase III with Bapineuzumab designed to treat patients with mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease.

    Currently there are approximately 29 drugs in various test phases for Alzheimer's. It's one of the most competitive new drug categories in the market today. Any one of these manufacturers could have a breakthrough, which could leave Elan in their dust, this is a true horse race.

    As for a rigid fundamental analysis on Elan or any biotech for that matter is an exercise in speculation. Especially Elan whose accounting for balance sheet and income statement items has always been in question. Of course with any biotech R&D is such a huge drain of cash it's as though these companies are designed to report negative earnings year after year. The Biotech Industry group trades on hopes and dreams. The dream that one day they might just develop that one drug that could say, cure the common cold. It's no wonder that this is the most speculative of industry groups.

    The savvy trader knows that the time to enter a biotech is when the Phase I Clinical Trials have shown some promise and the time to leave is when the Phase III Clinical Trials are nearing completion. It is after the Phase III Trials are completed and upon approval that reality sets in. The most expensive phase of new product development begins: manufacturing and marketing. This is akin to sending a son or daughter off to college, a huge drain of financial resources for those responsible without any guarantee of success.

    Although we are not quite at this point with the current development of Bapineuzumab the question of
    whether or not ELN breaks out through its 52 week high is moot. Although it is does make good fodder from a technical standpoint for proponents of the stock. It presents a formidable area of resistance that can basically only be overcome by the amount of interest this news announcement generates. Prop you wouldn't be trying to be generating some interest in this stock in order to unload those shares you bought at $3.00 in March ’05 now would you? :D